Need an offer tailored for your organization? Contact us
Our value proposition:
- GIS guarantees impartiality and integrity. Chaired by Prince Michael of Liechtenstein, GIS is not affiliated with any industry, company or political party
- GIS reports are authoritative. Our analysts are leading experts from the fields of government, politics, economics, the military and academia
- GIS reports are in-depth and predictive. They draw upon historical and geopolitical contexts to provide you with clear, practical assessments of likely outcomes
- GIS reports are bold. We are unafraid to offer analysis that is counter-intuitive or challenges the conventional wisdom
Why read GIS reports?
Because our forecasts give you the intelligence you need to make informed decisions
Civil war in Syria to escalate
GIS Middle East expert Bernard Siman presented a troubling forecast for Syria in February 2012: “There appear to be just two roads ahead for Syria – a long, protracted, bloody civil war, or the swift end of the regime. Most observers see the first scenario as the most likely.” He continued: “A civil war in Syria could rival the war in Iraq.” Unfortunately, he was exactly right. He also correctly predicted sectarian violence, and that NATO would not intervene.
Lack of progress on reform spells instability for Macedonia
GIS Balkans expert Blerim Reka foresaw drawn-out trouble in Macedonia as a result of its failure to fully implement peace agreements. In a November 2014 report, he said the knock-on effects would be delayed integration with the EU and NATO, and political instability. “The 10-year delay in implementing the [peace agreement] risks destroying the international community’s investment in peace in ending the last war in former Yugoslavia,” he said, adding: “Continued delay ... could destabilize the internal political situation in Macedonia.”
U.S. combat forces pullout will leave vacuum in Iraq
In February 2012, GIS expert Dr. James Jay Carafano predicted the instability that would plague Iraq after the U.S. withdrew its combat troops from the country. He pointed to concerns about political unrest and the Iraqi military’s capacity to protect the country. “The withdrawal of US forces has removed a deterrent from the political environment which might have served as a check on the current power struggle,” he said. He also correctly predicted Iran’s attempts to increase its influence in the region.
Challenges for Turkey under Erdogan, AKP
In this report from December 2011, GIS expert Udo Steinbach correctly predicted how, under now President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (then prime minister) and his AKP party, Islamification initiatives would be pushed forward and tensions with the Kurdish minority would increase. It also predicts wrangling over a new constitution, which continues to this day. “That means the new constitution will need consensus between the most important political and social forces in Turkey. That is cause for optimism,” wrote Steinbach.
Afghanistan troubles linger on, U.S. troops will have to stay
GIS expert Lisa Curtis saw continued trouble ahead for Afghanistan in November 2013. “The most likely scenario for Afghanistan is continued economic and political instability, fueled by insurgent attacks and government dysfunction,” she wrote. She also foresaw the need for the U.S. to keep combat troops in the country. “The U.S. would need to leave a robust residual force present in Afghanistan post-2014 and continue to fund the Afghan security forces for several years to come, or risk seeing the Taliban reassert power and al-Qaeda reestablish bases in the country.”
Russia ramps up pressure on Georgia
In October 2013, GIS Caucasus expert Eka Tkeshelashvili rightly predicted how Russia would continue to use the lack of Western support for Georgia to take advantage of political instability there. “Russia will use the ‘complications’ of the occupied regions and its fortification of ‘borders’, to put pressure on Georgia’s national politics, and to highlight the fragility of Georgia’s security and its dependence on Russia. Moscow’s intention would be to demonstrate the West’s lack of interest and/or its ability to confront Russia’s aggressive actions in its backyard,” she wrote.
Sunni-Shia conflict will define the Middle East
GIS Middle East expert Charles Millon predicted back in May 2012 what has become all too clear now: the power struggle in the Middle East will fall along Sunni/Shia lines. “The real danger threatening the Middle East at the moment does not stem from old, Assad-style regimes, but from the possibility that two antagonistic and equally radical camps of Shiites and Sunnis will form,” wrote Millon. “This would only serve the interests of Russia, China or the U.S. – countries which have made this their chosen arena for confrontation, especially in the struggle for control over oil resources.”