- Geopolitical tremors have contributed to instability in the Balkans
- Regional players are stepping up engagement in the region
- Worries about U.S. abandoning the region are probably unfounded
This year is bringing tremendous uncertainty to the Balkans due to developments in the region and around the globe. Three scenarios are possible: First, the United States and NATO could stay strongly engaged in the region; second, a U.S. pullback and passivity from the European Union could leave a vacuum that Russia would eagerly fill; third, the region’s borders could once again be reshaped, potentially by violent means.