The U.S. and Canada: chilly relations won’t sever the ties that bind
President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have a contentious relationship. Yet the economic, security and administrative ties that bind the United States and Canada together are far stronger than any hostility between the two countries’ leaders. Though differences in defense policy will exacerbate tensions over the next few years, trade will strengthen their bonds.
Gaza and the Hamas problem
Cut off by their neighbors, the people of the Hamas-governed Gaza Strip suffer from high unemployment, low investment and only sporadic electricity. With Hamas having proven itself dangerous to Egypt, Israel and the Ramallah-based Palestinian government, it is not difficult to see why the sanctions continue. Qatari aid may give temporary respite, but Gaza’s fate remains sealed by the terrorist organization’s determination to destroy Israel.
GIS Dossier: Europe as a global player: The Maghreb and sub-Saharan Africa
The most important part of Europe’s security perimeter in the 21st century may be its southern rim. The migration crisis of 2015 was only a foretaste of the demographic, economic and political pressures that are building up in the Maghreb and sub-Saharan Africa. Yet the approaches tried by European powers in this vital and growing region have generally failed. They need to get it right as new rival enters the neighborhood – China.
Mali’s two wars
Mali, aided by France and several other countries in the region, is waging a war against jihadist terrorists based in the north of its territory. But Bamako is also conducting a political, social and economic war against ethnic populations in the north who want more autonomy. Though France’s involvement has kept the Malian government stable, more and more officials are asking why it should continue, given Bamako’s and Paris’s seemingly divergent goals.
GIS Dossier: Saudi Arabia’s transforming role
Over the past five years, Saudi Arabia has had to make some big adjustments, as geopolitical shifts have put it in a precarious position. After the oil price slump of 2014 and Iran’s rise to regional prominence in 2015, the kingdom made strategic changes both at home and abroad. It decided to make a stand against Iranian attempts to forge a Shia crescent and moved to diversify its economy. This dossier reviews our analysts’ predictions for how successful these moves will be.
Cameroon’s ‘anglophone crisis’ offers a bleak outlook
In Cameroon’s English-speaking regions, forces advocating secession from the rest of the country are gaining clout. Violent clashes are increasing, dragging down the country’s economy and displacing thousands of people. President Paul Biya, now Africa’s longest-serving leader, is still likely to win a seventh term in office this year, but his eroding legitimacy will make it even more difficult to bring stability back.
Duterte’s impact at the two-year mark
When President Rodrigo Duterte came to power in the Philippines, his plan to reorient the country’s geopolitics toward Beijing and away from Washington was a shock. But reality has set in – although Manila now takes a more neutral line, the U.S. still plays a crucial role in the Philippines’ security. The public is also wary of China, whose aggressive moves in the South China Sea could cause an uproar and force Mr. Duterte to realign with Washington.
Mozambique’s economic recovery faces tough challenges
Despite the untimely death of the leader of its opposition movement, Mozambique has managed to implement changes that will end years of political violence. The country is rich in natural gas and has plenty of agricultural potential, but a financial scandal and terrorism in its northern provinces are holding it back. Until these lingering problems are resolved, its much-anticipated economic boom will never materialize.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have diverging goals in Yemen
The United Arab Emirates is part of a Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis in Yemen. But recently, it has become clear that Abu Dhabi’s and Riyadh’s goals are diverging. While both the Emiratis and Saudis want to roll back Iran’s growing influence in the region, the UAE wants to divide Yemen, so it can gain more control around critical access points to the Red Sea. The tensions that will arise will further complicate the Yemen conflict.