UK Prime Minister (2016-present)
Brexit scenarios: Toward the endgame
Prime Minister Theresa May has bowed to economic reality and unveiled a Brexit model that would keep the United Kingdom close to the European Union. The move provoked an immediate cabinet crisis and the resignations of leading Brexiters. Fear of a Labour government will probably keep other Conservatives in line, but Ms. May’s survival also hinges on the EU accepting her new strategy. Otherwise, a hard Brexit is plausible.
Opinion: The Skripal case and common sense
There has been no shortage of analysis of the Skripal case and possible Russian motivations for poisoning the former spy. They all fall flat: the Kremlin had no motive to commit such a crime. A little common sense is all one needs to conclude that whoever did wanted to escalate the conflict between Russia and the West even further.
What will it take to tame Russia?
British Prime Minister Theresa May pointedly accused the Kremlin of attempting to assassinate a former Russian intelligence operative and his daughter in the United Kingdom. Ms. May also managed to persuade the United States and key EU countries to join in a huge retaliatory expulsion of Russian diplomats. Yet, will mere gestures deter Russia from violating the rules of international behavior? Putting real money where the West’s moralizing mouth is still looks far from certain.
Is Brexit inevitable?
Signs are accumulating that the preliminary divorce agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union is starting to unravel, and that a year from now, on March 29/30, 2019, we could witness a “hard Brexit” with no transition arrangements and chaos in areas hitherto regulated by the EU. The damage to both sides’ economies would be substantial, and time for softening the blow is running out.
Theresa May’s guardedly optimistic Brexit scenario
Under London’s current proposal, the United Kingdom could quit the European Union at midnight on March 30, 2019 largely unscathed, leaving behind a smaller, but cooperatively disposed community on the continent and the outstanding, complex divorce issues for settling later on. But then, there is the “cliff edge” scenario with not such a happy ending.
Brexit and the sunset of European influence in Asia-Pacific
Though the Asia-Pacific region seems too far away to be affected by Brexit, the UK’s departure from the EU will have a profound impact on the region. While it will reduce the bloc’s significance in the region’s affairs, the UK’s status may suffer as well. Asia-Pacific states will likely look to countries such as Germany to act as a new counterweight to China and the United States.
The UK is leaving the EU, not Europe
Brexit will offer the European Union and the United Kingdom the chance to put themselves back on track. The UK will no longer be seen as just one of 28 member states, while the EU can reestablish itself as a tool for collective action. However, this outcome will require flexibility from both sides. For now, a “hard Brexit” scenario is unlikely.
Opinion: Britain and Germany – should we expect a Brexit war?
As Europe gears up for Brexit negotiations, the lines in the sand are already being drawn. Germany is bent on making Britain pay a heavy price for leaving the European Union, while the United Kingdom is hoping for a soft divorce. While the German position looks strong on paper, too much hostility could backfire. Tensions between Berlin and London are likely to be short-lived. A compromise will probably be reached after the German elections this year.
Opinion: Why Germany ‘Kant’ be the UK’s perfect Brexit ally
The United Kingdom’s chances for an amicable divorce from the European Union depend above all on reaching an understanding with Germany. But in the Brexit negotiations, German interests will clash with German scruples. The latter may very well prevail.