UK Prime Minister (2016-present)
Theresa May’s guardedly optimistic Brexit scenario
Under London’s current proposal, the United Kingdom could quit the European Union at midnight on March 30, 2019 largely unscathed, leaving behind a smaller, but cooperatively disposed community on the continent and the outstanding, complex divorce issues for settling later on. But then, there is the “cliff edge” scenario with not such a happy ending.
Brexit and the sunset of European influence in Asia-Pacific
Though the Asia-Pacific region seems too far away to be affected by Brexit, the UK’s departure from the EU will have a profound impact on the region. While it will reduce the bloc’s significance in the region’s affairs, the UK’s status may suffer as well. Asia-Pacific states will likely look to countries such as Germany to act as a new counterweight to China and the United States.
The UK is leaving the EU, not Europe
Brexit will offer the European Union and the United Kingdom the chance to put themselves back on track. The UK will no longer be seen as just one of 28 member states, while the EU can reestablish itself as a tool for collective action. However, this outcome will require flexibility from both sides. For now, a “hard Brexit” scenario is unlikely.
Opinion: Britain and Germany – should we expect a Brexit war?
As Europe gears up for Brexit negotiations, the lines in the sand are already being drawn. Germany is bent on making Britain pay a heavy price for leaving the European Union, while the United Kingdom is hoping for a soft divorce. While the German position looks strong on paper, too much hostility could backfire. Tensions between Berlin and London are likely to be short-lived. A compromise will probably be reached after the German elections this year.
Opinion: Why Germany ‘Kant’ be the UK’s perfect Brexit ally
The United Kingdom’s chances for an amicable divorce from the European Union depend above all on reaching an understanding with Germany. But in the Brexit negotiations, German interests will clash with German scruples. The latter may very well prevail.
Opinion: EU-60 summit evades disaster and reform
The European Union avoided embarrassment at its 60th anniversary reunion thanks to British Prime Minister Theresa May, who tactfully stayed away before signing her divorce papers. But with the bloc facing tough choices about its future course, its leaders merely raised their champagne glasses. The EU fiddled at the Rome summit while its citizens did a slow burn.
The United Kingdom’s new positioning
British Prime Minister Theresa May is the first head of government to visit President Donald Trump after he assumed office. Her visit is significant in many aspects, especially in the context of Brexit and new policy orientations in the United States.
After the Brexit vote: a benchmark scenario for Europe (part 2)
There has been much talk but little planning for Europe’s life after Brexit. Yet proposals to make the EU more accountable, competitive and flexible have been on the table for almost a year. This report outlines a compromise scenario for an economically sensible, “soft” Brexit that could provide a broader framework for relations between the EU and its neighbors.
The European Union’s stillborn army
The plan for a European Union army appears to be an idea doomed to fail. Its failure, however, could pave the way for closer European defense cooperation centered on Germany. More likely, the push for an integrated European army will lead, somewhat paradoxically, to a renationalization of defense. Any such effort will have to rely heavily on NATO, and therefore on the alliance's strongest European military, Great Britain.
England in Europe – perennial ambivalence
Great Britain’s greatest modern statesman, Winston Churchill, called for a United States of Europe in 1946. Now the British will have to make other arrangements. After Brexit, Prime Minister Theresa May could revert to the ad hoc coalition-building and power-balancing that has long been a British speciality in Europe. But she may have something else up her sleeve.