UK Prime Minister (2016-present)
Brexit and trade
Brexit negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom were supposed to be concluded at the EU summit on October 17. But the deadline passed with no breakthrough, and no plans for a new meeting. With the clock to a “hard Brexit” ticking down, this could be the salutary shock needed to pave the way for a compromise — or point to a future in which the UK’s diminished weight in international trade encourages a drift toward protectionism.
GIS Dossier: Brexit – how we got here
Brexit negotiations are reaching a messy, contentious head. But it didn’t have to be this way. Going back years, European leaders have missed opportunities to take a more pragmatic stance that could have benefited both the UK and the EU. GIS experts have been pointing this out along the way, and have offered some stark, sometimes counterintuitive predictions about the way forward.
Brexit: holding out hope for pragmatism, and a miracle
Last week’s Salzburg negotiations were embarrassing for anyone holding out hope that European leaders might take a practical approach to Brexit negotiations. Even though maintaining the free movement of goods, services and capital, while losing the free movement of people is preferable to none of the above, EU decision makers are blindly sticking to bureaucratic dogma. Such attitudes are a detriment to European business and indeed the European spirit.
Brexit scenarios: Toward the endgame
Prime Minister Theresa May has bowed to economic reality and unveiled a Brexit model that would keep the United Kingdom close to the European Union. The move provoked an immediate cabinet crisis and the resignations of leading Brexiters. Fear of a Labour government will probably keep other Conservatives in line, but Ms. May’s survival also hinges on the EU accepting her new strategy. Otherwise, a hard Brexit is plausible.
Opinion: The Skripal case and common sense
There has been no shortage of analysis of the Skripal case and possible Russian motivations for poisoning the former spy. They all fall flat: the Kremlin had no motive to commit such a crime. A little common sense is all one needs to conclude that whoever did wanted to escalate the conflict between Russia and the West even further.
What will it take to tame Russia?
British Prime Minister Theresa May pointedly accused the Kremlin of attempting to assassinate a former Russian intelligence operative and his daughter in the United Kingdom. Ms. May also managed to persuade the United States and key EU countries to join in a huge retaliatory expulsion of Russian diplomats. Yet, will mere gestures deter Russia from violating the rules of international behavior? Putting real money where the West’s moralizing mouth is still looks far from certain.
Is Brexit inevitable?
Signs are accumulating that the preliminary divorce agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union is starting to unravel, and that a year from now, on March 29/30, 2019, we could witness a “hard Brexit” with no transition arrangements and chaos in areas hitherto regulated by the EU. The damage to both sides’ economies would be substantial, and time for softening the blow is running out.
Theresa May’s guardedly optimistic Brexit scenario
Under London’s current proposal, the United Kingdom could quit the European Union at midnight on March 30, 2019 largely unscathed, leaving behind a smaller, but cooperatively disposed community on the continent and the outstanding, complex divorce issues for settling later on. But then, there is the “cliff edge” scenario with not such a happy ending.
Brexit and the sunset of European influence in Asia-Pacific
Though the Asia-Pacific region seems too far away to be affected by Brexit, the UK’s departure from the EU will have a profound impact on the region. While it will reduce the bloc’s significance in the region’s affairs, the UK’s status may suffer as well. Asia-Pacific states will likely look to countries such as Germany to act as a new counterweight to China and the United States.