GIS Dossier: Brexit – how we got here
Brexit negotiations are reaching a messy, contentious head. But it didn’t have to be this way. Going back years, European leaders have missed opportunities to take a more pragmatic stance that could have benefited both the UK and the EU. GIS experts have been pointing this out along the way, and have offered some stark, sometimes counterintuitive predictions about the way forward.
The U.S. and Mexico go from pugilism to partnership
Despite confrontational rhetoric from the leaders of both countries, the U.S. and Mexico have plenty of reason to work together. Certainly, U.S. President Donald Trump and Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador have some contrasting views on bilateral issues, but both have signaled a willingness to collaborate on priorities from trade to drug trafficking. Appearances aside, cooperation may even flourish over the next two years.
Asia-Pacific countries look for signs of hope in Trump trade policy
Over the past two years, protectionism has dominated U.S. trade policy decisions, unsettling American trade partners in the Asia-Pacific region. These countries are unlikely to simply buckle to U.S. demands, instead expanding trade relationships with other states. However, there are signs that the administration could soften its stance and return to more pro-free trade policies. If it does, that could lay the groundwork for a return to bigger economic engagement in the region.
German exports slow down: Should Europe celebrate?
Those European leaders who like to complain about the ongoing trade surpluses of the German economy should not celebrate the recent slowdown in Germany’s exports and GDP growth. Higher labor costs and tensions in international trade may cause trouble for German exporters, but they are already investing in new production facilities in low-cost countries. If German exports slow down, their market share might be taken by German producers outside of Germany, while the productivity gap between Germany and the rest of Europe will widen.
A powerful new president in Mexico
Swept into office by an overwhelming electoral victory last month, Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will take office with a degree of power not seen in decades. He has prioritized several issue areas, including poverty, corruption and negotiations over NAFTA, but his specific policy agenda remains unclear. The new Mexican leader's success will depend on balancing decisive action with healthy restraints on presidential power
U.S. security policy toward Europe: The next phase
One of the most frequently asked questions about President Donald Trump’s foreign policy is what it plans to do about Europe. The answer to that is now clearer, though not necessarily the disaster for transatlantic relations that the G7 summit in Quebec appeared to be. What Washington has in mind is unsettling enough – regional stability and security, yes, but through bilateral engagement, and with much more combative economic policies.
China refreshens old promises to open up its domestic market
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s April pledge to allow more foreign competition in the country’s manufacturing and financial services sectors, and to respect Western companies’ intellectual property rights, momentarily eased the tension between Washington and Beijing. However, even if China implements these concessions, they will not suffice to eliminate the huge, deepening deficit in U.S. trade with the Asian country.