Like NAFTA, etc.
GIS Dossier: The South China Sea
The South China Sea is critical for global trade and security. Beijing’s moves to extend its influence throughout the sea have heightened tensions, risking conflict with neighbors and the United States. China’s global position, economic power and energy riches are all at stake. This survey presents GIS experts’ analyses and predictions for this crucial body of water.
Is Brexit inevitable?
Signs are accumulating that the preliminary divorce agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union is starting to unravel, and that a year from now, on March 29/30, 2019, we could witness a “hard Brexit” with no transition arrangements and chaos in areas hitherto regulated by the EU. The damage to both sides’ economies would be substantial, and time for softening the blow is running out.
2018 Global Outlook: The Euro-Atlantic relationship
The transatlantic relationship can be described as a family matter – with the United States as the mostly benevolent patriarch and Europe as the dependent relatives. Relations had been cooling for at least a decade, but this process is being expedited by the presidency of Donald Trump. Both sides seem to agree that Europe needs to grow up and take charge of its own destiny. If so, we could be headed for a stormy late adolescence.
GIS Dossier: Global trade and protectionism
According to the economic law of comparative advantage, the whole world has benefited from the enormous expansion of international trade since 1980. But over the past decade, few countries have acted like they believe it. GIS experts look at the roots and likely future course of protectionism’s global resurgence.
Opinion: Why Germany ‘Kant’ be the UK’s perfect Brexit ally
The United Kingdom’s chances for an amicable divorce from the European Union depend above all on reaching an understanding with Germany. But in the Brexit negotiations, German interests will clash with German scruples. The latter may very well prevail.
Are we heading toward trade wars?
Sluggish international trade in recent years has given reasons to worry about globalization. The value of trade involving the G20 group of countries leveled off in 2010 and has been in decline since mid-2014. Many blame Donald Trump and the new vogue for protectionism, but that is an oversimplification.
U.S. trade options in Asia
President Donald Trump’s pledge to crack down on countries that have large trade surpluses with the U.S. has created a lot deal of uncertainty in Asia. Will the new administration enforce current laws and seek bilateral deals, or will it take a more punitive, protectionist stance? Washington’s choice – and how its partners respond – may determine whether the U.S. keeps its leading role in Asia or gets marginalized.
Opinion: Trumponomics is worth a second look
President Donald Trump’s economic program is perceived by many as a recipe for disaster. But its most questionable, protectionist elements – such as the border adjustment tax – are unlikely to be implemented or could bring completely unexpected benefits. And the new administration’s plans for infrastructure and deregulation should bring positive effects.
Global Outlook 2017: The Trump transition
President Donald Trump is the product of powerful undercurrents that laid bare the hollowness of politics as usual. His message has few historical precedents among U.S. presidents. Americans have no shared sense of what the new era will bring, just a feeling that there is no going back.