GIS Dossier: Vietnam defends its independence
Vietnam, with its more than 3,400-kilometer coastline on the South China Sea, its growing economy and its large military, is a linchpin of Southeast Asia. It also lies at the crux of global powers’ interests in the region. So far, it has managed to maximize its independence, but rapidly changing geopolitical dynamics in the region threaten to undermine its strategy. This Dossier reviews GIS experts’ analysis of and predictions for this emerging regional leader.
2019 Global Outlook: China’s regional impact
China will cast a long shadow in East Asia again this year. 2019, however, is shaping up to be less volatile than 2018. In security matters, expect China to use more “carrot” than “stick” as its neighbors try to balance Beijing against Washington. In economic terms, a stimulus program and a trade understanding with the United States could ameliorate China’s slowdown.
Asia-Pacific countries look for signs of hope in Trump trade policy
Over the past two years, protectionism has dominated U.S. trade policy decisions, unsettling American trade partners in the Asia-Pacific region. These countries are unlikely to simply buckle to U.S. demands, instead expanding trade relationships with other states. However, there are signs that the administration could soften its stance and return to more pro-free trade policies. If it does, that could lay the groundwork for a return to bigger economic engagement in the region.
The effects of U.S. trade policy in the Pacific
The Trump administration has made a big splash with its trade policy. The effects are already being seen in the Pacific region, after Washington’s decision to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, renegotiate the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement and slap tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Whether President Trump’s aggressive approach remains intact or if it is softened by free traders in the administration, the U.S. is likely to be marginalized while China will benefit.
GIS Dossier: Global trade and protectionism
According to the economic law of comparative advantage, the whole world has benefited from the enormous expansion of international trade since 1980. But over the past decade, few countries have acted like they believe it. GIS experts look at the roots and likely future course of protectionism’s global resurgence.
Global Outlook 2017: China’s rocky year
The election of Donald Trump in the United States brings with it a great deal of uncertainty for China and its leaders. It could face the threat of a trade war, and diplomatic challenges regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea. However, as Washington takes a more isolationist stance, 2017 will also offer China the opportunity to fill the vacuum.
A new look at the pivot to Asia
U.S. allies in Southeast Asia have been turning toward China for various reasons. President Donald Trump has declared he will take a tough line toward Beijing, while his determination to retreat from the TPP agreement and reduce foreign involvement has aroused worry in the region. The Trump administration will have a difficult time keeping allies in line, but a focus on bilateral trade agreements offers flexibility and new opportunities.
Global Outlook 2017: Southeast Asia and the U.S.-China dynamic
Southeast Asian nations will continue their long-term strategy of making the most out of their relationships with the United States and China in 2017. Though some leaders, especially in the Philippines and Malaysia, have made high-profile overtures to Beijing, and Vietnam has much to lose from TPP’s demise, none of these countries will abandon partnership with Washington.
Global trends: TPP holds key for developments in Asia-Pacific
East Asia’s geopolitical future over the next 18 to 24 months will hinge on whether the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade pact is implemented as planned. Last year 12 countries – including Japan and the United States, but excluding South Korea and China – concluded talks on the text of the agreement. However, the deal still faces several hurdles, not least of w...
Southeast Asia’s tangled web of economic ties may help limit China’s sway
Now that China is Southeast Asia’s top trading partner, many argue that a new alignment of power is emerging. Certainly, increased trade has helped transform perceptions of Chinese influence in the region from negative to relatively positive. But there is little risk of a China-centred trade bloc materialising. The biggest reason for this is the diversity of econom...