Ukraine’s revolution nears a test

• Foreign support and economic growth have bolstered Ukraine’s reform movement
• Dismantling the post-Soviet oligarchy has proved an almost insuperable task
• The public is not yet convinced by the government’s progress in fighting corruption
• Alienated voters could produce a surprise in 2019, but reforms won’t be reversed

This may have been independent Ukraine’s last calm summer for a while. There will soon be a reckoning with what succeeded and what did not after the revolution of 2013-2014, during which the eyes of the world were on Kiev. Ukrainians will elect a president early next year, with parliamentary elections to follow in the fall. The very fact that the postrevolutionary government managed to survive this long should be counted as a success.

If we compare the current situation to conditions after the overthrow of President Leonid Kuchma and his regime during the Orange Revolution of 2004-2005, the assessment is mostly positive. But comparative analysis is one thing, and the opinion of Ukrainian voters is another. In 2019 they will get their say on the revolution for the first time, and there are plenty of indications that their verdict on the post-Maidan political elites will be harsh.