Belarusian President Lukashenko welcomes Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Minsk

What Lukashenko learned from Crimea

  • Crimea taught Belarus and other post-Soviet states that Russia can redraw their borders
  • This spring’s revolution in Armenia showed Russia can replace their leaders
  • Belarusian President Lukashenko is taking precautions, but it may be too late

Years ago, President Alexander Lukashenko cherished ambitions of becoming the chief of state of the Union of Russia and Belarus. Today he sees that history is back with a vengeance, and that Minsk is now treated by Moscow as the capital of an insignificant peripheral state on the imperial fringe. The young state farm director who made good as president had dreams that once stretched as far as the Pacific. Now he worries about whether someone in the Kremlin might decide to knock him off his perch and grab his increasingly petty fiefdom.

Mr. Lukashenko is just 64 years old and in good health. Even so, he is a veteran in the post-Soviet political space – only Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan’s 78-year-old president, can claim more time in office and a longer institutional memory. But while he has no serious challengers on the domestic political scene, Belarus’s ruler still must worry about staying in power and about what would happen if he loses his grip.

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Dr. Pawel Kowal
Mr. Lukashenko’s fellow citizens live in Belarus, but their mental maps remain inside Russia
read more about it in the report
What's inside
  • Crimea taught Belarus and other post-Soviet states that Russia can redraw their borders
  • This spring’s revolution in Armenia showed Russia can replace their leaders
  • Belarusian President Lukashenko is taking precautions, but it may be too late
Who will benefit?
  • Report is targeted to the decision makers in cross country manufacturing – suppliers, manufacturers, logistics.
  • Also considered useful for the administrative university facilities, to better understand the possibe effects of current decisions.
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