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A protest in Brussels

Will the European Union survive until 2025? Three scenarios

  • If contagion spreads after Brexit, the EU may have largely disintegrated by 2025, even if a small group of states, clustered around Germany, continues EU cooperation in certain areas
  • If survival instincts prevail, an EU without Britain might get a new lease of life
  • A less ambitious reorganization remains the most likely scenario

At a recent conference, participants were asked to key in a single word that expressed their vision of the European Union in 2025. The word that loomed largest on the overhead screen was "Gone."

Preposterous, perhaps, but scarcely surprising: top Brussels officials and national leaders now predict the EU's demise almost daily. This is a response to multiple, mutually reinforcing crises, concerning especially the euro area, migration, terrorism, the Schengen open-borders system, insurgent nationalist, xenophobic and euroskeptic political movements, and instability to the south and the east.

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Dr. Michael Leigh
Britain’s withdrawal will shift the balance of opinion in the EU from free trade to protectionism
read more about it in the report
What's inside
  • If contagion spreads after Brexit, the EU may have largely disintegrated by 2025, even if a small group of states, clustered around Germany, continues EU cooperation in certain areas
  • If survival instincts prevail, an EU without Britain might get a new lease of life
  • A less ambitious reorganization remains the most likely scenario
Who will benefit?
  • Report is targeted to the decision makers in cross country manufacturing – suppliers, manufacturers, logistics.
  • Also considered useful for the administrative university facilities, to better understand the possibe effects of current decisions.
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