Haiti falls deeper into crisis
In the shadow of a major gang uprising and governmental paralysis, Haiti’s fate hangs in the balance.
In a nutshell
- A dramatic spike in gang violence has led to the complete collapse of the Haitian state
- The UN has authorized a multinational support mission, but it may not be deployed
- Nearly half of Haitians face acute hunger, with no end to the crisis in sight
In the latest iteration of Haiti’s seemingly perpetual cycle of instability, a wave of gang violence has engulfed the Caribbean island nation.
In early March, while acting Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry was in Nairobi to sign an agreement for the deployment of Kenyan police to Haiti, gangs launched a coordinated attack. The criminal organizations, which operate on behalf of different political groups, organized a massive jailbreak of over 4,000 inmates, many of them fellow gang members. Working together, they expanded their territorial control of key parts of the capital city Port-au-Prince, attacking critical infrastructure points like the maritime port and airport. Mr. Henry was not allowed to return to the island, and after spending some time in Puerto Rico he is now reportedly in California.
Since then, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) has convened regional and Haitian stakeholders to find a pathway out of the stalemate. Acting Prime Minister Henry agreed to resign following the formation of a transitional government. While Haitian actors are attempting to coordinate this process, former-army-official-turned-rebel Guy Phillipe, who led the ousting of former Haitian President Aristide, is threatening to assume the presidency. In parallel, United States officials are working toward the deployment of Kenyan police, alongside military forces from Benin and the Bahamas. Authorized under Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations, the Multinational Security Support Mission for Haiti (MSS) was approved by the United Nations Security Council for an initial period of 12 months, with no defined end.
Haiti’s enduring legacy of turmoil
While Haiti is no stranger to political instability or violence, the recent spike in gang activity and the disintegration of the government stands out. Haiti has not held elections since 2016. Besides the acting prime minister, there are no elected officials serving at any level of government. This gradual decay of institutions has led to an erosion of state power and an unchecked growth of armed groups and gangs. Haitians have no confidence in their government and do not believe the international community can stabilize the situation. Many view the prime minister as illegitimate, despite his support from the U.S., the European Union, Canada and other Western partners.
Many argue Haiti is a failed state, but in truth there never was a functioning Haitian state. The only authorities able to exercise true operational control of the country are the gangs, many of which have converged into a federation led by a former Haitian police officer nicknamed Barbecue. The island nation is trapped in a situation in which the international community does not have the means to thoroughly address the current crisis but neither do Haitian political actors or stakeholders. There is no blueprint on how to fix the situation; the international community only knows what has previously failed and must therefore be avoided.
Can the multinational security support mission succeed?
With few other options on the table, Western policymakers view the MSS as the most viable option, but its prospects are grim. Despite the deteriorating security conditions, the notion of foreign boots on the ground is unpopular among Haitians. In Kenya, there is growing political opposition to sending police forces abroad to address the problems of another nation.
While American officials claim no U.S. forces will support the effort, the MSS will be largely funded and managed from Washington. Considering Haiti’s proximity to the U.S., it is difficult to envision a scenario in which American officials are not somehow further drawn in. This creates its own set of challenges, considering the widespread and bipartisan skepticism Americans have over their country’s increased commitments abroad.
Scenarios
Likely: The mission fails
While the U.S. is not providing security personnel for the operation, they are coordinating the efforts and have so far been unsuccessful in acquiring funding for the mission. Current projections place the annual cost at $600 million. With the budgetary constraints due to the West’s support for Ukraine and U.S. congressional concerns, sufficient funding for the operation is unlikely.
Should the mission obtain the funds, significant hurdles remain. African and Haitian forces have never worked nor trained together, and language differences and the lack of previous coordination pose a substantial barrier. Moreover, since the mission is not sanctioned by the UN Security Council, the logistical and intelligence support that accompanies traditional peacekeeping operations will not be provided by the UN. To date, there is no state or entity capable or willing to fill that vacuum.
Most likely: Exodus from Haiti
Haiti’s neighbors, including the Bahamas, the Dominican Republic and the United States, have increased land and sea patrols in anticipation of an increased outflow of Haitians. The already dire and complex humanitarian situation has now become downright ominous. The World Food Program estimates that nearly five million of the country’s 11 million inhabitants are facing acute hunger.
Politically motivated violence increasingly targets public officials, including education and healthcare workers, leading many to flee the island. This outflow, especially of highly skilled workers, will leave the Haitian population at large, and particularly the most vulnerable, even more dependent on foreign aid.
Unlikely: Political reconciliation and elections
Even if security conditions improve and Haitian stakeholders reach an agreement on a transitional government, there is a long road ahead to create the conditions for credible elections. Haiti does not have an updated voter registry; the country is still operating off data from the 2000 census that does not reflect population changes following a series of natural disasters, including the catastrophic 2010 earthquake. Haitian officials will be unable to certify election results as they have no way to account for who can vote and how fraud can be prevented.
In the run-up to an election, it can be safely assumed that political turmoil will persist. Political actors are very likely to continue resolving their disputes through gangs. With the spike in the number of gang members following their prison break, politicians will have no choice but to negotiate with them.
The protracted political impasse seems to be moving nowhere fast. Haiti’s fractured and deeply corrupt political community has been unable to agree on a workable pathway forward. The formation of the presidential transitional council is facing its own headwinds, including the need to create a provisional electoral council – meaning that a political solution in the form of elections will continue to elude Haiti unless the security conditions improve. Meanwhile, political actors are using gangs to advance their political agenda, with killings and sexual violence on the rise against the backdrop of a deteriorating humanitarian crisis.
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