North America
If the United States walks away from the 1987 treaty banning intermediate- and shorter-range nuclear weapons, as President Donald Trump claims he wants to do, a cornerstone of the existing arms control system will be removed. The chances of it being replaced with a better, multilateral agreement involving China and a handful of other nuclear powers are very slim.
Russia & Central Asia
The drawdown of American troops in Afghanistan and Chinese persecution of the Muslim Uighur minority in Xinjiang could turn Central Asia into a hotbed of jihadist terrorism. One country that is particularly vulnerable to such a resurgence is Tajikistan. It is also the area where Russian and Chinese security interests could most easily come into conflict.
North America
U.S. President Donald Trump worries that the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates too quickly. In fact, the Fed has engaged in only moderate tightening so far. By mid-2019, it is likely to end the cycle and hold rates steady, since the U.S. central bank is probably focusing on restricting the money supply rather than reaching an interest rate target. At that point, Mr. Trump will no longer be able to blame the Fed for any fiscal trouble and will have to implement reforms if he wants to spur growth.
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