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A protest in Pretoria, South Africa

Instability in sub-Saharan Africa: The ‘tribal’ factor

A spate of violence against foreigners in South Africa last month highlighted Africa’s struggle to overcome ethnic divisions. In many countries, tribal and religious loyalties supersede national ones, making it difficult to create a united national polity. States that have been forced to unite in conflict have done better in overcoming tribalism. The ones that do so successfully will have a greater chance of achieving stability, and therefore attracting crucial foreign investment.

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GIS on target predictions

Xi-Trump meetings amid tensions

Throughout the ups and downs of the U.S.-China trade dispute, GIS has maintained that the two countries would eventually come to an agreement. We stuck with that prediction even after the November 2018 APEC meeting, when rhetoric on both sides became very heated. In a comment that same month, GIS Founder and Chairman Prince Michael of Liechtenstein posited that the antagonistic rhetoric used at the summit could allow both countries “to climb down and make a deal.” He noted that U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed to meet face-to-face at the G20 summit, “showing their intention to come to an understanding.” Such meetings would become more frequent, he predicted. The GIS founder was right on all counts: the two presidents declared a “truce” in the trade dispute (though it was short-lived, also as Prince Michael predicted). More meetings have taken place. Presidents Trump and Xi met again at the June 2019 G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, where yet another truce was declared.

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Geopolitics are back on the agenda

Due to the fast changing international order geopolitics are back on the agenda. I believe that GIS makes a great contribution with analyses and insights that should help businesses and governments developing their responses.

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