Europe
In 2019, the geopolitical interplay between Russia, Ukraine and Europe will depend on their leaders. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin will have to decide whether to continue his assertive foreign policy. In Ukraine, the presidential election could bring the mercurial Yulia Tymoshenko to power – how she will deal with the war in the east remains a mystery. In Europe, the Franco-German alliance is losing traction. Rifts in the EU will deepen, making it impossible to present a united front on the challenges Russia and Ukraine present.
Africa
Bucking the world trend, Africa in 2018 was marked by important advances toward free movement, free trade and closer cooperation between states. The main advances were on the economic front, with the agreement to create a Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA). While trade liberalization has the potential to be transformative for Africa, disparate stages of development, protectionist impulses and political tensions may prevent meaningful advances.
Europe
Another year, another missed opportunity for fiscal reform in France. Like his predecessors, President Emmanuel Macron has ended up mostly raising taxes instead of decreasing the size of government and reducing expenditures. The “national dialogue” to come following the Yellow Vest protests could bring better democratic representation – and with it, more economically responsible governance. But entrenched interests will put up stiff opposition.
Recommended Reports
Free reports
Brexit: An unnecessary problem