Central & South America
Nearly 20 years after its historic default, Argentina is still trying to climb back to economic equilibrium. Years of corruption and mismanagement frittered away profits from natural resource exports, while a “gradualist” approach to reform still ended in Latin America’s largest-ever bailout from the IMF. This GIS Dossier reviews our predictions and analysis for one of South America’s largest countries, trying to regain economic stability and influence on the international scene.
Central & South America
Long known in Latin America as a backwater haven for criminal enterprises and eccentric dictators, Paraguay began to turn around over the past decade. Encouraged by growth from exports of soybeans and hydroelectricity, the country’s elite is taking cautious steps to strengthen state institutions and improve the rule of law. How far and deep this process goes, however, may depend on whether the export-led recovery holds up.
European Union
After dropping interest rates close to zero and pumping 2.6 trillion euros into Europe’s economy through debt purchases, is the European Central Bank out of ammunition? Not necessarily. Through its “targeted longer-term refinancing operations” (TILTROs), the ECB is planning to use negative interest rates to pay commercial banks to make loans. And economists at the IMF have come up with even more radical proposals to eliminate or restrict cash to allow deeply negative interest rates.
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