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Dr. Michael Wohlgemuth ECONOMY / POLITICS

Professor Brenda Shaffer ENERGY / POLITICS

Dr. James Jay Carafano POLITICS / DEFENSE

NEW Opinion: The Skripal case and common sense

United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May and Russian President Vladimir Putin together at the 2016 G20 summit in Hangzhou, China

Dr. Svyatoslav Kaspe

POLITICS / DEFENSE

There has been no shortage of analysis of the Skripal case and possible Russian motivations for poisoning the former spy. They all fall flat: the Kremlin had no motive to commit such a crime. A little common sense is all one needs to conclude that whoever did wanted to escalate the conflict between Russia and the West even further.

20.04.2018

China refreshens old promises to open up its domestic market

A chart showing how in 20 years the U.S. deficit in trade with China went from zilch to some $376 billion

China president’s April pledge to allow more foreign competition in the country’s manufacturing and financial services sectors, and to respect western companies’ intellectual property rights, momentarily eased the tension between Washington and Beijing. These concessions, though, even if implemented by China, will not suffice to eliminate the problem of the huge and deepening defict in U.S. trade with the Asian country.

19.04.2018

GIS Dossier: The Western Balkans

Map of Western Balkans countries and their relationships with NATO and the EU

Of all Europe’s trouble spots, the Western Balkans have a solid claim to being the most troublesome. One hundred years after the end of World War I, the region is finally stable and – save for a violent flare-up or two – peaceful. But plenty of tensions remain, corruption runs rampant and the rule of law is unevenly applied. With all these potential stumbling blocks, the region’s road toward prosperity remains bumpy. This Dossier reviews GIS reports on this region, so critical to Europe’s lasting peace.

18.04.2018

Comment

Prince Michael of Liechtenstein

War or peace for Syria: A humanitarian and geopolitical predicament

The United States, France and the United Kingdom were forced to attack Syrian government forces for using chemical weapons against rebels. But that cannot disguise the unpleasant fact that the only road to peace in Syria leads to Damascus and President Bashar al-Assad.

17.04.2018

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Clarity and instability in the South China Sea

A Hague-based arbitration panel has declared that China’s famous “nine-dash line” provides no legal basis for its claims to the vast maritime territory it encloses. The decision suddenly brings legal clarity to the dispute between Beijing and several countries in the region over control of islands and shipping lanes in the South China Sea. How these countries – in particular the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan – react will be critical to the peace and security in the region.

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Kim Watch: North Koreans have a new father

North Korea’s political philosophy makes the leader the “father” of the nation – and Kim Jong-un expects to be loved, obeyed and revered by North Koreans as if he were their biological father. Now, a new hit song is encouraging them to do just that.

Kati Kang

POLITICS / DEFENSE

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Prince Michael on global power shifts and defense cooperation

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Energy

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Latin America & Caribbean tendered projects by bid price and capacity, 2013-2017

Latin America’s renewable energy challenge

Prices for renewable energy are dropping in Latin America, making decarbonization – once a far-fetched notion – a very real possibility. The question is whether the political will is there. Many of the country's grids are in bad shape and unprepared to handle the change, while legislation, sometimes intended to help renewables, has ended up throwing obstacles in the way. Can countries in the region implement the necessary reforms?

Dr. Noel Maurer

03.04.2018

Oil tanker docks at terminal in Zhoushan, China

Increasing oil competition in Asia

The first supertanker bearing U.S. crude oil to Asia after a 40-year export embargo was liftd left the Gulf Coast of Louisiana in February 2018. The event was hailed as the start of a new oil trading era, and possibly the start of a war for market share in Asia between U.S. shale producers and conventional exporters from the Middle East. In fact, of all oil exporters to Asia, the Middle Eastern producers should be the least concerned.

Dr. Carole Nakhle

27.03.2018

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The Caspian Sea basin: lessons from recent major investments

The Caspian region has bucked a global trend of low oil and gas investment because it offers good business conditions and developed infrastructure. As these investments increase production from the region, new opportunities could emerge for both China and Europe to shore up their energy security. But this development could also lead to more confrontation between Russia and the United States.

Professor Brenda Shaffer

26.02.2018

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, Saudi Arabian Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources Khalid Al-Falih and OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo

Oil market rebalancing and the future of ‘OPEC+’

In 2016, some oil-producing countries that were not part of OPEC joined with the cartel to agree on production cuts to shore up oil prices. At the time, plenty of observers were skeptical the group would hold together. But not only did it manage to implement the reductions (and extend them twice), it has put a floor under oil prices. Now that prices are rising, many again doubt the alliance will survive. But the realities of the oil market continue to make cooperation beneficial, especially for the two leading countries: Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Dr. Carole Nakhle

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Defense & Security

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War in the North? Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Iran

Israel is girding for another war in southern Lebanon. But this time Hezbollah can pound northern and central Israel with up to 1,500 missiles a day – 10 times as many as it launched in the entire 2006 Lebanon war. And the conflict could well spread to Syria and Gaza, and perhaps even to Iraq and the Mediterranean offshore gas fields. As Iran supplies Hezbollah with ever more advanced missile technologies, the window for a preemptive strike by the Israeli Defense Forces is closing.

Professor Dr. Amatzia Baram

10.04.2018

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GIS Dossier: The North Korean opening

President Donald Trump’s surprising decision to hold summit talks with Kim Jong-un has triggered a round of high-stakes diplomacy, including repeat meetings between North and South Korean officials and a lightning visit by Mr. Kim to Beijing. There is nothing accidental about Pyongyang’s charm offensive. It is the moment the North Korean leader has been preparing for years.

GIS Feature

04.04.2018

Chinese expansion has Japan’s and India’s prime ministers seeking U.S. support

A free and open Indo-Pacific: Regional and global implications

One of the techniques devised for managing China’s ascent and its destabilizing impact is the concept of a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” This idea, embraced by the governments of Japan, India and the United States, includes military, economic, political, legal and diplomatic dimensions. Some argue it is a smoke screen to mask U.S. disengagement, while others maintain it is a Japanese-inspired effort to enlist American help.

Dr. James Jay Carafano

20.03.2018

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The ‘neutralization option’ in North Korea

The possibility of the United States launching a preemptive attack against North Korea’s nuclear missile program appears to have receded with Pyongyang’s recent peace overtures, but the two are connected. The conventional wisdom holds that such a strike, dubbed a “bloody nose,” is unthinkable. But that ignores the long history of U.S.-South Korean planning for war against North Korea, the extensive intelligence collected on the North’s conventional and nuclear forces, and the overwhelming U.S. military advantage.

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14.03.2018

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Opinion: The Skripal case and common sense

Dr. Svyatoslav Kaspe

20.04.2018

China refreshens old promises to open up its domestic market

Dr. Junhua Zhang

19.04.2018

GIS Dossier: The Western Balkans

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Russia’s and China’s quiet contest in Central Asia

While Russia focuses on its geopolitical objectives in Central Asia, China’s primarily interest is in the region’s mineral and energy resources. As recipients of Chinese investments and development aid, the five Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – are seeking to leverage the two powers’ competition for their own benefit.

Zorigt Dashdorj

17.04.2018

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Economy

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Chinese steelworker directs crane to pick up coils of wire in Yichang city, Hubei province

Trump’s trade war is poised for a Pyrrhic victory

The flip side of the Trump administration’s drive to reduce the U.S. foreign trade deficit is that it will leave the rest of the world with fewer dollars to finance its budget deficit. President Trump could cut spending drastically or persuade the Federal Reserve to buy more bonds, but neither seems likely. More probably, he will do nothing as domestic rates rise and the dollar strengthens – widening the trade deficit again.

Professor Enrico Colombatto

16.04.2018

Russian currency exchange in Moscow offers Bitcoin and Sbercoin cryptocurrencies

Opinion: A lost opportunity for cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are volatile, but could prove useful by injecting a needed element of competition into the realm of monetary policy and finance. Rather than allow this, however, governments will probably step in to regulate them, perhaps under global supervision. If that happens, we will have missed an opportunity to foster new business and job creation in a healthier monetary environment.

Professor Enrico Colombatto

13.04.2018

A picture showing two Indonesian military men as they watched the sinking of a foreign fishing vessel off the Sumatran coast

Indonesia moves to assert its maritime interests between two oceans

Indonesia has adopted a maritime development strategy that calls for infrastructure buildup and exploitation of sea-based resources, including offshore oil and gas drilling. Logical as this strategy could be for an archipelagic state with huge development needs, it may easily put the politically cautious Jakarta on a collision course with Beijing.

Dr. Frank Umbach

12.04.2018

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The Trump administration has made a big splash with its trade policy. The effects are already being seen in the Pacific region, after Washington’s decision to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, renegotiate the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement and slap tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Whether President Trump’s aggressive approach remains intact or if it is softened by free traders in the administration, the U.S. is likely to be marginalized while China will benefit.

Walter Lohman

11.04.2018

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