Latest reports
Belarus in the crosshairs
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is facing unprecedented turmoil at home. Protracted demonstrations have led to a string of politically motivated arrests. However, trouble is also brewing on the foreign front. The Kremlin appears to be losing patience with the strongman’s trick of playing off Russia against the West and could decide to intervene as it did in 2008 in Georgia or 2014 in eastern Ukraine.
GIS Dossier: The shifting grounds of EU banking rules and supervision
Bank regulators are forced to close their eyes again to vulnerabilities that made the 2008 banking industry meltdown possible. They need to ensure that banks continue supporting the real economy during the pandemic. For instance, capital requirements are being softened and regulatory relief given so banks can lend as much as possible ...
Relevance beyond the crisis: Fiscal policy’s moment
The Covid-induced economic crisis has led policymakers to put in place large fiscal rescue packages including new spending, tax cuts and subsidies. Governments will now be tempted to spend more to boost the recovery. Soon, however, countries will have to pay for the debts they have rung up. Those that ...
Oil market outlook: A cautious global recovery
The countries in OPEC+ are currently complying with the terms of their deal to restrict output, but this discipline may not last. Meanwhile, oil markets remain at the mercy of the global economic recovery. Demand will need to increase well above the current levels to absorb the inventory buildup accumulated ...
Surprising surge: Productivity during the Covid-19 crisis
Among the developed nations in Europe and North America, productivity growth had been on a steady decline over recent years. The Covid-19 crisis brought a sharp change in that trend, with some countries seeing an increase in productivity by more than 20 percent. It was a surprising result, especially with ...
Hydrogen: Decarbonization’s silver bullet?
Germany has recently adopted a new hydrogen strategy and is aiming to push a European Union-wide policy on the chemical element. Hydrogen can deliver and store energy, and it can do so in clean, secure and affordable ways. The key question is which methods of production will gain traction – ...
Turkey’s decisive entry into Libya’s civil war
The militias of Tobruk-based warlord Khalifa Haftar failed to take the capital of Libya and are being pushed out from the western part of the country, where there are strategic oil fields. Turkey’s intervention played a decisive role in this military outcome. As other external powers engaged in Libya consider ...
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Henrique Schneider
Henrique Schneider is the chief economist of the Swiss Federation ...
Dr. Emmanuel Martin
GIS Expert Emmanuel Martin is the general manager of the ...
Dr. Junhua Zhang
GIS Expert Dr. Junhua Zhang is a senior associate at ...
Professor Enrico Colombatto
Enrico Colombatto is a professor of economics at the University ...
Dr. Svyatoslav Kaspe
Svyatoslav Kaspe (Moscow) is Professor at National Research University – ...
Riley Walters
GIS Guest Expert Riley Walters is Senior Policy Analyst and ...
Dr. Uwe Nerlich
International security advisor Dr Uwe Nerlich is a founding director ...
Professor Jaime Nogueira Pinto
Historian and political writer Professor Jaime Nogueira Pinto has published ...
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The security risks of 5G
Widespread deployment of 5G technology is still years away, but there is growing public attention being paid to the immense benefits of enhanced wireless connectivity. With maximum speeds that are more than 100 times faster than currently available, the next ...
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Shoring up oil prices
Earlier this year, U.S. President Donald Trump brokered a deal with Saudi Arabia and Russia to prop up oil prices, after they had spiraled to historic lows. More than a year ago, GIS expert Professor Enrico Colombatto saw the potential for such a trilateral deal, especially if oil prices started to fall sharply. “[A] trilateral cartel could solidify and shape a new framework for the world oil market,” he wrote, emphasizing that the U.S. would play the crucial role, due to its lower dependence on oil revenue. “The ball is now in the Americans’ court, and much depends on what the U.S. producers do. The Russians and Saudis can accomplish little unless their moves harmonize with the Americans’ strategy.”
Oil prices in 2019
Where are oil prices headed? In the long run, the slowly rising global demand for energy will not be enough to offset the declining costs of extraction. In the short term, much depends on how U.S. producers, whose shareholders are dissatisfied with the return on their fracking investments so far. ...
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Geopolitics are back on the agenda
Due to the fast changing international order geopolitics are back on the agenda. I believe that GIS makes a great contribution with analyses and insights that should help businesses and governments developing their responses.
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Berlin could destroy the last vestiges of budget discipline in the EU