Eastern & Southern Africa
Angola has recently become one of the most stable countries in sub-Saharan Africa. It now hopes to rebuild its agriculture, education and navy, as well as jump-start investment in the oil sector and broaden its foreign relations base to include Western powers – all before deteriorating living conditions turn the population against the government of Gen. Joao Lourenco.
Global
2018 was not a bad year for the world economy, and 2019 should be only a little worse. Consistent with our forecasts, last year brought no disasters: no recession in the West, no major slump in China, no public finance crisis in Europe or global trade wars. Instead, there was satisfactory growth and a long overdue cleanup on financial markets. 2019 will be more sluggish as China keeps slowing and the U.S. administration spurs commercial tensions. Yet the biggest brake will be applied by the world economy’s silent actor – lagging productivity growth.
China & Northeast Asia
China’s rise as an economic and military colossus has transformed the geopolitics of East Asia. Its most powerful neighbor, Japan, has embarked on a more self-reliant course, even as it continues to lean heavily on its alliance with the United States. Tokyo is expanding its contacts, both economic and strategic, with Southeast Asia, India and Australia.
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