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Dr. Elie Podeh
Dr. Elie Podeh DEFENSE / POLITICS
Dr. Tomas Dupla del Moral
Dr. Tomas Dupla del Moral POLITICS
Dr. John Polga-Hecimovich
Dr. John Polga-Hecimovich POLITICS / DEFENSE
Dr. Noel Maurer
Dr. Noel Maurer ENERGY / POLITICS
Dr. Rogier Creemers
Dr. Rogier Creemers POLITICS / ECONOMY
Professor Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen
Professor Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen DEFENSE / POLITICS
Dorothee Deuring
Dorothee Deuring ECONOMY / POLITICS
Dr. Lucia Dammert
Dr. Lucia Dammert DEFENSE / POLITICS
Peter Juhasz
Peter Juhasz POLITICS / ENERGY
Diane Katz
Diane Katz POLITICS / ECONOMY
General Stanislaw Koziej
General Stanislaw Koziej DEFENSE / POLITICS
Dr. Jaime Nogueira Pinto
Dr. Jaime Nogueira Pinto POLITICS / ENERGY
Carlos Basombrio
Carlos Basombrio POLITICS / ECONOMY
Dr. Emily Baldwin
Dr. Emily Baldwin DEFENSE / POLITICS
Prince Michael of Liechtenstein
Prince Michael of Liechtenstein POLITICS
Professor Gerardo Esquivel
Professor Gerardo Esquivel ECONOMY / POLITICS

NEW Kazakhstan: Russia’s staunchest ally wavers

Russia & Central Asia
Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev shakes hands with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, January 2018 Russia & Central Asia
Professor Stefan Hedlund

Professor Stefan Hedlund

DEFENSE / ECONOMY

Could the linchpin in Russia’s plan to reassert its control over former Soviet states be in danger of slipping away? Moscow fears it might. Kazakhstan has been making overtures to the U.S. and China, and chipping away at key cultural ties. For now, Astana cannot afford to break away from Russia’s orbit, especially in security matters, but an overreaction by the Kremlin could tip the balance.

19.10.2018

Iran and Israel’s proxy war in Syria escalates

Maghreb & the Middle East
The picture showing the delivery of Russia’s state-of-the-art air defense system to the Khmeimim air base in Syria Maghreb & the Middle East

The accidental downing of a Russian military plane by Syrian anti-missile defense, which coincided with Israeli air force jets’ presence in the area, highlights the danger of the increasingly open proxy warfare between Israel and Iran. The number of parties involved – Israel, Russia, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah – points to the risk of the drawn-out Syrian conflict exploding into full-fledged regional war.

18.10.2018

GIS Dossier: Brexit – how we got here

Europe
Brexit supporters hold a demonstration outside the Houses of Parliament in London, 2016 Europe

Brexit negotiations are reaching a messy, contentious head. But it didn’t have to be this way. Going back years, European leaders have missed opportunities to take a more pragmatic stance that could have benefited both the UK and the EU. GIS experts have been pointing this out along the way, and have offered some stark, sometimes counterintuitive predictions about the way forward.

17.10.2018
Comment
Prince Michael of Liechtenstein

Brazil’s presidential elections: An omen for Europe?

Europe is more developed and stable than Brazil, but its citizens also have strong reasons to feel let down by the mainstream political forces. An increasing number of voters here may, just like so many Brazilians, support radicals in the hope of opening a path for badly needed reforms.
09.10.2018
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In July 2015, GIS expert Dr. Michael Wohlgemuth presciently set out the consequences of a British withdrawal from the European Union. He pointed out that the economic outcomes were hard to pin down, but that they would go well beyond simple growth. The costs of Brexit could include “less competition, less innovation and a less efficient division of labor,” he wrote. Moreover, the balance between pro-market and interventionist/protectionist countries would tip toward the latter – something that has already become clear even before the UK has left. “The eternal EU power struggle between German ‘Ordnungspolitik’ and French ‘planification’ would be settled, with Germany losing out systematically,” he predicted, concluding that if Brexit were indeed to occur, “the EU will have shown that it is incapable of reform.”
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Kim Watch: ‘Our nukes should be handed to the next generation intact’

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Energy

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A map of gas infrastructure in Ukraine and the region Europe

The future of Ukraine’s energy transit status

With a key contract expiring next year, Ukraine’s role in transmitting Russian gas to Europe is uncertain. The planned Nord Stream 2 pipeline threatens to circumvent Ukraine, which has offered lowered gas transit rates to Gazprom if it scraps the new project and allows other exporters to pass through the country. Russia is uninterested in such a deal, but rising forecasts of European gas demand may mean that the Kremlin must continue to rely on Ukraine or find other options.

Dr. Frank Umbach

15.10.2018
OPEC’s logo at its headquarters in Vienna OPEC

OPEC’s next phase

OPEC has regained influence on the back of its cooperation with Russia. Some analysts suggest this partnership could be made more formal, for example by admitting Russia into the group, while others say doing so would make the organization even more unwieldy. Now, as OPEC continues to try to achieve “fair” and stable prices, it faces a new challenge: legislation in the U.S. could allow American officials to sue the organization for price fixing.

Dr. Carole Nakhle

20.09.2018
Turkish gas imports in 2016 Europe

Turkey’s energy foreign policy at a crossroads

Energy cooperation between Turkey and Russia has ramped up in recent years. If it grows any closer, it could threaten EU interests, especially the key Southern Gas Corridor project. But Turkey's own interests are also at risk if its dependence on Russian gas supplies grows. The question is whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will prioritize diversification – and therefore cooperation with the EU and Azerbaijan – or placating his domestic political allies.

Dr. Frank Umbach

11.09.2018
A picture of the king of Saudi Arabia in an official capacity Maghreb & the Middle East

Saudi Arabia’s royals are readying a revolution from above

The heir to Saudi Arabia’s throne wants to diversify the kingdom’s oil-based economy and make it one of the 15 biggest in the world. As Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman lines up funding for his project, many wonder if the monarchy is ready for reforms that are nearly certain to upset its social and political order. Can a mostly tribal population and an entrenched religious establishment be dragged into modernity by royal order?

Ambassador Zvi Mazel

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Defense & Security

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The picture showing the delivery of Russia’s state-of-the-art air defense system to the Khmeimim air base in Syria Maghreb & the Middle East

Iran and Israel’s proxy war in Syria escalates

The accidental downing of a Russian military plane by Syrian anti-missile defense, which coincided with Israeli air force jets’ presence in the area, highlights the danger of the increasingly open proxy warfare between Israel and Iran. The number of parties involved – Israel, Russia, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah – points to the risk of the drawn-out Syrian conflict exploding into full-fledged regional war.

Ambassador Zvi Mazel

18.10.2018
Russian pilots discuss aircraft readiness with a mechanic in syria Russia & Central Asia

Russian airpower on trial

Russia’s air force has come a long way from its inept performance during the 2008 war with Georgia. In terms of command and control, logistics and sortie rates during its expeditionary campaign in Syria, it has far surpassed expectations. But that still tells us very little about how it would stack up against a more sophisticated enemy, and especially against the U.S. Air Force.

Professor Stefan Hedlund

19.09.2018
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Next steps in the North Korea talks

As nuclear disarmament talks proceed between the United States and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the two sides are pursuing incompatible negotiating strategies. The U.S. wants tangible, verifiable progress fast, while North Korea is convinced that President Donald Trump is winging it. These opposed courses could soon lead to an impasse. Even so, the prospects for an escalation of conflict remain low.

Dr. James Jay Carafano

03.09.2018
A photo of the leaders of Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan holding hands at a summit in Tehran before formal talks Russia & Central Asia

Iran’s rapprochement with Azerbaijan opens dangerous dynamics

The relentless rise of Iran is also making itself felt in the South Caucasus, a region ridden by border conflicts and great-power rivalry. The inroad is Azerbaijan. The small but oil-rich Caspian Sea state with a border issue with a neighbor is being intensely courted by Tehran and Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. Israel, too, cultivates its relations with Baku. Russia’s traditional policy in its backyard – divide and rule, and sell weapons to all – may backfire under such circumstances.

Professor Stefan Hedlund

28.08.2018
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Politics

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Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev shakes hands with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, January 2018 Russia & Central Asia

Kazakhstan: Russia’s staunchest ally wavers

Could the linchpin in Russia’s plan to reassert its control over former Soviet states be in danger of slipping away? Moscow fears it might. Kazakhstan has been making overtures to the U.S. and China, and chipping away at key cultural ties. For now, Astana cannot afford to break away from Russia’s orbit, especially in security matters, but an overreaction by the Kremlin could tip the balance.

Professor Stefan Hedlund

19.10.2018
Brexit supporters hold a demonstration outside the Houses of Parliament in London, 2016 Europe

GIS Dossier: Brexit – how we got here

Brexit negotiations are reaching a messy, contentious head. But it didn’t have to be this way. Going back years, European leaders have missed opportunities to take a more pragmatic stance that could have benefited both the UK and the EU. GIS experts have been pointing this out along the way, and have offered some stark, sometimes counterintuitive predictions about the way forward.

GIS Feature

17.10.2018
The leaders of China and Venezuela in Beijing Central & South America

Opinion: The ‘military option’ in Venezuela is an illusion

The Chinese government is reportedly considering helping Venezuela’s government meet its most pressing domestic needs and start rebuilding the nation’s hydrocarbons industry. The United States, meanwhile, is hinting that it could use force to remove the increasingly brutal regime. Collective pressure on Caracas from the Latin American community, however, remains the only realistic way of resolving the crisis.

Dr. Joseph S. Tulchin

12.10.2018
Photo of Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople Russia & Central Asia

Orthodox split bolsters Russia’s political regime

Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople shocked the world last month by deciding Ukraine should have its own Autocephalous Orthodox Church, ending its subordination to Moscow. If the complex canonical procedure succeeds, it will have large political implications. The Russian Orthodox Church would lose its transnational character, making it even more dependent on the state. In consequence, Russia’s international isolation will grow and its “fortress mentality” deepen.

Dr. Svyatoslav Kaspe

11.10.2018
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Economy

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Photo of Daniele Nouy, head of banking supervision at the ECB European Union

Orderly failure: The EU’s Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive

After the 2008-2009 financial crisis, governments are wary about bailing out distressed banks with taxpayer money. But the bail-in procedures implemented in 2016 by the European Union, while helping minimize some risks, have their own drawbacks. If new proposals are adopted to give resolution authorities more preemptive powers, they will give technocrats unprecedented control over the banking industry.

Professor Elisabeth Krecké

16.10.2018
A map of existing and proposed energy and transportation infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe Europe

Regional integration at the Three Seas summit

With the third summit of the Three Seas Initiative, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe are trying to come together on issues like energy and infrastructure. The effort comes after several failed attempts at regional integration in the 20th century, and this one remains mostly on paper. If the European Union and outside investors will buy into the idea, several proposed projects could help lift all boats.

Alexandr Vondra

09.10.2018
A smartphone with a Bitcoin symbol and chart, on top of a computer keyboard Global

Opinion: Cryptocurrencies – fears and opportunities

After a few years of hype, experts are now tamping down expectations for cryptocurrencies. Indeed, several concerns about security and regulation need to be addressed. But cryptocurrencies – and the blockchain technology they are based on – also offer tremendous room for innovation and efficiency. By competing with traditional fiat currency, they could help profligate governments and central banks become more disciplined

Princess Gisela of Liechtenstein

05.10.2018
Protesters in Cairo, Egypt Global

GIS Dossier: Europe as a global player – the Middle East and North Africa

Europe’s influence as a great power is nowhere more apparent than in the attraction it exerts on the poorer countries to its south – in the Middle East and Northern Africa. This is the region where European Union member states, often without U.S. support, have deployed their full foreign-policy arsenal, from diplomacy and military intervention to financial aid and investment, with mixed success. Yet as migration and terror show, problems the EU fails to address “out there” tend to wind up on its doorstep.

GIS Feature

03.10.2018
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