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More than 100 global experts.
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Dr. Rameez Abbas
Dr. Rameez Abbas DEFENSE / ECONOMY
Dr. Michael Leigh
Dr. Michael Leigh POLITICS / ECONOMY
Nick Fielding
Nick Fielding POLITICS / DEFENSE
Dr. Hildegard of Liechtenstein
Dr. Hildegard of Liechtenstein ECONOMY / ENERGY
Dr. Lucja Cannon
Dr. Lucja Cannon ECONOMY / POLITICS
Lars Christensen
Lars Christensen ECONOMY / POLITICS
Dr. Svante Cornell and Professor Brenda Shaffer
Dr. Svante Cornell and Professor Brenda Shaffer POLITICS / ECONOMY
Dr. Christoph Schaltegger
Dr. Christoph Schaltegger ECONOMY / POLITICS
Tony Housh
Tony Housh DEFENSE / POLITICS
Dr Francisco J. Monaldi
Dr Francisco J. Monaldi ENERGY / POLITICS
Lisa Curtis
Lisa Curtis DEFENSE / POLITICS
Dr. Emilio J. Cardenas
Dr. Emilio J. Cardenas POLITICS / ECONOMY
Dr. Lucia Dammert
Dr. Lucia Dammert DEFENSE / POLITICS
Kati Kang
Kati Kang POLITICS / DEFENSE
Vaughan Winterbottom
Vaughan Winterbottom POLITICS / ECONOMY
Professor Dr. Amatzia Baram
Professor Dr. Amatzia Baram DEFENSE / POLITICS

NEW Carlos Ghosn and the rigor of the Japanese state

China & Northeast Asia
Former Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn is released on bail from arrest in Japan China & Northeast Asia
Urs Schoettli

Urs Schoettli

POLITICS / ECONOMY

The surprise arrest of Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn is superficially a tale of personal greed and clashing corporate cultures. But drill deeper and the more significant takeaway is what the case reveals about the Japanese approach to law and the power of the state. That is why Mr. Ghosn’s fate could have an impact on Japan’s international standing and foreign investors.

21.03.2019

GIS Dossier: Governance in Africa, the case of three countries

Eastern & Southern Africa
A collage made of portraits of three African leaders, former long-term presidents Kabila and dos Santos, and third-term president Kagame Eastern & Southern Africa

Three sub-Saharan African countries, all with decades-long, devastating civil wars behind them. Two are populous and large, well-endowed in natural riches, while one is a small, landlocked nation with no particular resources. Which one is Africa’s poster child of economic and developmental success today? This GIS Dossier examines why the longtime leaders of these three countries delivered such widely differing results for their societies.

20.03.2019

India decides on force to break a pointless cycle

South & Southeast Asia
Supporter of India’s government celebrate the air strike against Pakistan South & Southeast Asia

The latest round of fighting on the India-Pakistan border reveals a changed mood in New Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to order an air strike deep inside Pakistan in reprisal for a terrorist attack is evidence of a more muscular policy taking shape. If Mr. Modi is reelected in a few months, it can be assumed that India will be brandishing a bigger stick at its Western neighbor.

19.03.2019
Comment
Prince Michael of Liechtenstein

A choice for economies: Freedom or socialism

Some say the global economy is slowing down due to Brexit and the U.S.-China trade dispute – but these developments are not the real dangers. Far more insidious is the trend toward increased government influence in economies and large public debts. Yet, even many economists have adopted the notion that government intervention and high debt can be a good thing. These policies have been tried before and failed. Worse, they can end up limiting freedom.
13.03.2019
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In early February, media reported that Saudi Arabia and several other members of OPEC were pursuing a formal deal with Russia to continue their cooperation on setting oil production limits to influence prices. The partnership has been dubbed “OPEC+.” GIS experts have repeatedly predicted this cooperation would continue in the near term. In her January 2019 Global Outlook report on market forces in the energy sector, GIS energy expert Dr. Carole Nakhle wrote: “OPEC+ will remain on the scene as long as its two architects – Saudi Arabia and Russia – are in agreement.” In a February 2019 report on oil prices, GIS economics expert Prof. Enrico Colombatto also predicted that cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Russia would continue – but that they would need to get the United States on board to keep prices from going too low.
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2019 begins with the U.S. a dominant producer of oil and gas, while OPEC has allied with countries like Russia to try to put a floor under prices. Green energy sources continue to rise in popularity, but still have only a small impact on global consumption. And while developed nations phase out coal, developing countries will likely remain dependent on the fuel for the foreseeable future. How will all of these factors affect the global energy market going forward?
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Europe stands to be the biggest loser of the INF Treaty’s ending

The U.S. has announced officially that it walks away from the 1987 treaty banning intermediate- and shorter-range nuclear weapons, removing a cornerstone of the existing arms control system. The chances of it being replaced with a better, multilateral agreement involving China and a handful of other nuclear powers appear to be slim at this point.
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GIS Dossier: Governance in Africa, the case of three ...
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08.03.2019
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Energy

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The future of LNG for Europe

LNG is undergoing a production boom worldwide, mostly driven by the industry’s rapid growth in the United States. This could have profound effects on Europe, which has already become the largest buyer of American LNG. As a result, big changes are coming in the global gas market, as countries like Russia and Qatar jockey to compete.

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The long ‘bridge’ of carbon capture and storage technology

Reducing carbon emissions to reach environmental goals will require many different approaches, not just a transition to renewable energy sources. One important technology is carbon capture and storage, or CCS. Its potential for reducing CO2 emissions is significant, but high costs and uncertainties are slowing its development.

Dr. Carole Nakhle

21.02.2019
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Slow at first to pick up on the disruptive nature of battery technology, Europe is now aiming to give the industry a boost. The U.S. and Asia, especially, have a head start. The stakes are high: if Europe loses out, not only could it suffer economically, it could also lose geopolitical influence to China.

Dr. Frank Umbach

19.02.2019
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Six years ago, Mexico began the process of reforming its oil and gas sector, opening it up to private investment and ending the monopoly of its state-owned oil company. The election of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has changed all that. Mexico is heading back toward resource nationalism, but stands to lose out in the ultra-competitive global oil market.

Dr. Carole Nakhle

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Defense & Security

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Supporter of India’s government celebrate the air strike against Pakistan South & Southeast Asia

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The latest round of fighting on the India-Pakistan border reveals a changed mood in New Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to order an air strike deep inside Pakistan in reprisal for a terrorist attack is evidence of a more muscular policy taking shape. If Mr. Modi is reelected in a few months, it can be assumed that India will be brandishing a bigger stick at its Western neighbor.

Pramit Pal Chaudhuri

19.03.2019
Three U.S aircraft carriers from the Pacific Fleet participate in naval exercises ​​ North America

The Trump maritime strategy

After two decades of engagement in Afghanistan and Iraq, where land and air power ruled supreme, the U.S. Navy is again on the leading edge of American foreign policy. Freedom of Navigation missions and bold forward deployments of carrier task groups are just part of a new policy to challenge expansion by strategic adversaries such as China and Russia. Yet for the Trump maritime strategy to work, it must be sustained by effective communications and diplomacy, and by an accelerated naval construction program.

Captain James E. Fanell

07.03.2019
Russian special forces troops in masks holding firearms Russia & Central Asia

The future of Russia’s Special Operations Forces

Russia’s special forces have gained prominence and valuable combat experience in recent years playing crucial roles in Crimea and Syria. Now they are training to engage their NATO counterparts. As a result, Western militaries have been forced to change the way they approach this threat. Though Russian special forces are still playing a game of technological catch-up, they are a tool the Kremlin is increasingly likely to use.

Professor Stefan Hedlund

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The undeclared neo-Cold War between Russia and the West mixes 21st-century techniques – below-the-threshold operations, cyberattacks, information warfare through social media – with more traditional forms of military confrontation. As arms races, proxy wars and nuclear blackmail stage a comeback, NATO must rethink conventional deterrence. Yet even a beefed-up force will prove ineffective if the alliance chooses the wrong defensive strategy.

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Politics

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Corruption in Africa: trends and scenarios

Sub-Saharan Africa is, according to some measures, the world's most corrupt region. But the picture is decidedly mixed. Some countries have made great strides in fighting graft, while others will remain mired in corrupt systems for years to come. Democratic institutions are an important factor, but so is economic freedom. As access to information makes officials' corrupt practices increasingly visible, what is the outlook for these countries, as their people strive for a fairer shot?

Teresa Nogueira Pinto

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Ecuadoran President Lenin Moreno gives a speech at the United Nations in New York Central & South America

Ecuador picks up the pieces

Ecuador is a small country that embodies many of Latin America’s problems in miniature. Overdependence on commodity exports and Chinese loans, unsustainable public finances, poverty, corruption, crime, refugees and tensions with the U.S. are just a few items on the list. Most of all, its minority government must clean up after former President Rafael Correa’s failed “Citizens’ Revolution,” trying to build sound institutions on a legacy of personalistic governance.

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French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel pose for photos after signing their new treaty in Aachen Europe

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When French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel signed a new Franco-German treaty in Charlemagne’s old imperial capital of Aachen earlier this year, the outcome was underwhelming. The ambitious goals that were set also seem entirely unrealistic, given the countries’ increasing divergence on policy. That means fears of a dominant Franco-German tandem in the EU are unfounded, but so are hopes that it will lead the bloc out of its current doldrums.

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Economy

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Former Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn is released on bail from arrest in Japan China & Northeast Asia

Carlos Ghosn and the rigor of the Japanese state

The surprise arrest of Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn is superficially a tale of personal greed and clashing corporate cultures. But drill deeper and the more significant takeaway is what the case reveals about the Japanese approach to law and the power of the state. That is why Mr. Ghosn’s fate could have an impact on Japan’s international standing and foreign investors.

Urs Schoettli

21.03.2019
Rice and maize farmers take a break in Tanzania Global

Opinion: Property rights and the challenges of transplanting institutions

Since the time of Adam Smith, economists have understood that the wealth or poverty of nations hinge on the quality of their institutions. Political, economic and social rules of the game can be inclusive, offering opportunities for prosperity to all, or extractive, protecting the rents of a few. But the international effort to introduce one such rule – formal property rights – shows that even simple changes can have complex and unwelcome effects in alien cultural settings.

Dr. Emmanuel Martin

15.03.2019
A map showing the Western Balkans’ population losses Balkans

Integrating a half-empty Balkans into the EU

Citizens of the Western Balkans are entering the European Union much faster than their countries. As a result, the region’s depopulation is accelerating, driven by high unemployment, poor governance, rampant corruption, rising crime and unclear prospects for the future. The most desired destination is Germany, which welcomes emigrants as a much-needed supplement to its workforce. However, the geopolitical consequences of a half-empty Balkans may be disturbing.

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14.03.2019
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Italian gold and populist publicity

Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini has revived a five-year-old proposal to use his country’s gold reserves to bring down the budget deficit. The idea is problematic for several reasons – but that is not the point. Mr. Salvini is likely using this controversial plan to make headlines and burnish his populist credentials ahead of the European Parliament elections. While he may take the gold idea further, his real goal is to enlarge and lead a pan-European alliance of euroskeptics.

Professor Enrico Colombatto

12.03.2019
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