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Carlota Ahrens Teixeira
Carlota Ahrens Teixeira POLITICS / ECONOMY
Dr. Tomas Dupla del Moral
Dr. Tomas Dupla del Moral POLITICS
Professor Dr. Fritz Vahrenholt
Professor Dr. Fritz Vahrenholt ENERGY / POLITICS
Dr. Lucia Dammert
Dr. Lucia Dammert DEFENSE / POLITICS
Dr. Frank Umbach
Dr. Frank Umbach ENERGY / POLITICS
Dr. Emilio J. Cardenas
Dr. Emilio J. Cardenas POLITICS / ECONOMY
Dr. Alberto Mingardi
Dr. Alberto Mingardi ECONOMY / POLITICS
Professor Sergei Guriev
Professor Sergei Guriev ECONOMY / POLITICS
Captain James E. Fanell
Captain James E. Fanell DEFENSE / POLITICS
Dr. Derek Scissors
Dr. Derek Scissors ECONOMY / POLITICS
Dr. Uwe Nerlich
Dr. Uwe Nerlich DEFENSE / POLITICS
Luke Coffey
Luke Coffey DEFENSE / ENERGY
Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak
Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak POLITICS / DEFENSE
Carlos Eduardo Lins da Silva
Carlos Eduardo Lins da Silva POLITICS / ENERGY
Professor Dr. Blerim Reka
Professor Dr. Blerim Reka POLITICS / DEFENSE
Dr. Nicola Casarini
Dr. Nicola Casarini POLITICS / ECONOMY

NEW Kazakhstan: Russia’s staunchest ally wavers

Russia & Central Asia
Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev shakes hands with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, January 2018 Russia & Central Asia
Professor Stefan Hedlund

Professor Stefan Hedlund

DEFENSE / ECONOMY

Could the linchpin in Russia’s plan to reassert its control over former Soviet states be in danger of slipping away? Moscow fears it might. Kazakhstan has been making overtures to the U.S. and China, and chipping away at key cultural ties. For now, Astana cannot afford to break away from Russia’s orbit, especially in security matters, but an overreaction by the Kremlin could tip the balance.

19.10.2018

Iran and Israel’s proxy war in Syria escalates

Maghreb & the Middle East
The picture showing the delivery of Russia’s state-of-the-art air defense system to the Khmeimim air base in Syria Maghreb & the Middle East

The accidental downing of a Russian military plane by Syrian anti-missile defense, which coincided with Israeli air force jets’ presence in the area, highlights the danger of the increasingly open proxy warfare between Israel and Iran. The number of parties involved – Israel, Russia, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah – points to the risk of the drawn-out Syrian conflict exploding into full-fledged regional war.

18.10.2018

GIS Dossier: Brexit – how we got here

Europe
Brexit supporters hold a demonstration outside the Houses of Parliament in London, 2016 Europe

Brexit negotiations are reaching a messy, contentious head. But it didn’t have to be this way. Going back years, European leaders have missed opportunities to take a more pragmatic stance that could have benefited both the UK and the EU. GIS experts have been pointing this out along the way, and have offered some stark, sometimes counterintuitive predictions about the way forward.

17.10.2018
Comment
Prince Michael of Liechtenstein

The perpetual war

The truce brokered by Turkey and Russia in northwestern Syria has prevented a slaughter of the remnants of the Syrian opposition forces and scores of hapless civilians. This highlights the pragmatic attitudes of the two powers that have assumed key roles in the Syria conflict. The danger of a larger war remains, however, as long as Iran’s designs in Syria threaten Israel.
20.10.2018
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Energy

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With a key contract expiring next year, Ukraine’s role in transmitting Russian gas to Europe is uncertain. The planned Nord Stream 2 pipeline threatens to circumvent Ukraine, which has offered lowered gas transit rates to Gazprom if it scraps the new project and allows other exporters to pass through the country. Russia is uninterested in such a deal, but rising forecasts of European gas demand may mean that the Kremlin must continue to rely on Ukraine or find other options.

Dr. Frank Umbach

15.10.2018
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OPEC has regained influence on the back of its cooperation with Russia. Some analysts suggest this partnership could be made more formal, for example by admitting Russia into the group, while others say doing so would make the organization even more unwieldy. Now, as OPEC continues to try to achieve “fair” and stable prices, it faces a new challenge: legislation in the U.S. could allow American officials to sue the organization for price fixing.

Dr. Carole Nakhle

20.09.2018
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Turkey’s energy foreign policy at a crossroads

Energy cooperation between Turkey and Russia has ramped up in recent years. If it grows any closer, it could threaten EU interests, especially the key Southern Gas Corridor project. But Turkey's own interests are also at risk if its dependence on Russian gas supplies grows. The question is whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will prioritize diversification – and therefore cooperation with the EU and Azerbaijan – or placating his domestic political allies.

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The heir to Saudi Arabia’s throne wants to diversify the kingdom’s oil-based economy and make it one of the 15 biggest in the world. As Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman lines up funding for his project, many wonder if the monarchy is ready for reforms that are nearly certain to upset its social and political order. Can a mostly tribal population and an entrenched religious establishment be dragged into modernity by royal order?

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The accidental downing of a Russian military plane by Syrian anti-missile defense, which coincided with Israeli air force jets’ presence in the area, highlights the danger of the increasingly open proxy warfare between Israel and Iran. The number of parties involved – Israel, Russia, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah – points to the risk of the drawn-out Syrian conflict exploding into full-fledged regional war.

Ambassador Zvi Mazel

18.10.2018
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Russia’s air force has come a long way from its inept performance during the 2008 war with Georgia. In terms of command and control, logistics and sortie rates during its expeditionary campaign in Syria, it has far surpassed expectations. But that still tells us very little about how it would stack up against a more sophisticated enemy, and especially against the U.S. Air Force.

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The relentless rise of Iran is also making itself felt in the South Caucasus, a region ridden by border conflicts and great-power rivalry. The inroad is Azerbaijan. The small but oil-rich Caspian Sea state with a border issue with a neighbor is being intensely courted by Tehran and Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. Israel, too, cultivates its relations with Baku. Russia’s traditional policy in its backyard – divide and rule, and sell weapons to all – may backfire under such circumstances.

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Kazakhstan: Russia’s staunchest ally wavers

Could the linchpin in Russia’s plan to reassert its control over former Soviet states be in danger of slipping away? Moscow fears it might. Kazakhstan has been making overtures to the U.S. and China, and chipping away at key cultural ties. For now, Astana cannot afford to break away from Russia’s orbit, especially in security matters, but an overreaction by the Kremlin could tip the balance.

Professor Stefan Hedlund

19.10.2018
Brexit supporters hold a demonstration outside the Houses of Parliament in London, 2016 Europe

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The Chinese government is reportedly considering helping Venezuela’s government meet its most pressing domestic needs and start rebuilding the nation’s hydrocarbons industry. The United States, meanwhile, is hinting that it could use force to remove the increasingly brutal regime. Collective pressure on Caracas from the Latin American community, however, remains the only realistic way of resolving the crisis.

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After the 2008-2009 financial crisis, governments are wary about bailing out distressed banks with taxpayer money. But the bail-in procedures implemented in 2016 by the European Union, while helping minimize some risks, have their own drawbacks. If new proposals are adopted to give resolution authorities more preemptive powers, they will give technocrats unprecedented control over the banking industry.

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After a few years of hype, experts are now tamping down expectations for cryptocurrencies. Indeed, several concerns about security and regulation need to be addressed. But cryptocurrencies – and the blockchain technology they are based on – also offer tremendous room for innovation and efficiency. By competing with traditional fiat currency, they could help profligate governments and central banks become more disciplined

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Europe’s influence as a great power is nowhere more apparent than in the attraction it exerts on the poorer countries to its south – in the Middle East and Northern Africa. This is the region where European Union member states, often without U.S. support, have deployed their full foreign-policy arsenal, from diplomacy and military intervention to financial aid and investment, with mixed success. Yet as migration and terror show, problems the EU fails to address “out there” tend to wind up on its doorstep.

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03.10.2018
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