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Rubble after an air strike in the Idlib governorate

Syria’s relentless war

Though the regime of President Bashar al-Assad now governs most of the country and ISIS has lost the territory it once held, there is still no end in sight for the Syrian Civil War. Opposition groups control several provinces, where violence simmers, and the complicated web of foreign interests has yet to be untangled. All of this bodes ill for stability in Syria, and the millions of refugees who want to return home.

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Regime change in Venezuela: the army will decide when

With the plight of Venezuelans getting worse by the day, it seems strange that the public outcry has not managed to oust President Nicolas Maduro. However, as far back as 2016, GIS guest expert Dr. Anthony Maingot pointed out that this was to be expected. President Maduro’s ability to remain in power “shows that words like ‘crisis’ and ‘intolerable’ are relative,” he wrote. The real arbiter of power in Venezuela is the military, which remains in President Maduro’s corner because the profits from drug trafficking keep lining the generals’ pockets. As long as this remained the case, the army would be willing to keep Mr. Maduro in power. If supplies of cocaine from Colombia were to fall, then competition could splinter the army and, “in return for legal immunity and control of the narcotics trade, the military will support new elections.”

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Geopolitics are back on the agenda

Due to the fast changing international order geopolitics are back on the agenda. I believe that GIS makes a great contribution with analyses and insights that should help businesses and governments developing their responses.

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