Trump’s long-term strategy for American power
Trump’s presidency showcases disruptive strategic methods that require observing actions rather than traditional policy frameworks.
In a nutshell
- Traditional measures of policy are ineffective with Trump
- Realist pragmatism drives adaptive decisions shaped by actors’ behaviors
- Expect brinkmanship, allied burden-sharing, energy and technology focus
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United States President Donald Trump does practice strategy. The president’s first months back in the Oval Office, however, demonstrate that he is absolutely not executing strategy within the traditional Washington framework as practiced in modern times.
Decoding Mr. Trump’s strategy requires paying close attention to his actions. Typically, U.S. administrations publish a family of comprehensive documents that both issue detailed instructions to federal agencies and explain to Congress, and the public, the details of national strategy.
President Trump’s second administration published its National Security Strategy (NSS) in early December. The document speaks little of major power competition, emphasizes finding cooperative relations with adversaries and builds on its wariness of NATO expansion, among other things. Yet the paper itself may not be as instructive as observing presidential decisions and actions, the president’s cabinet leadership or his interactions with friends and foes.
The Trump challenge
Many of the traditional markers that enable the interpretation and prediction of national strategy are either missing or different in this administration. As a result, much analysis misses the point.
Politics
One common predictor of strategy and policy is the ruling party’s politics. The conservative coalition that gave President Trump his victory in the 2024 national election shares no consensus on foreign policy. Foreign affairs was not a top-tier issue in the campaign. Most Trump supporters are content if the president’s policies are deemed successful.
Focusing on particular factions within the Republican Party or the predisposition of some officials often comes up short. There is, for example, a strong “restrainer” wing of the party, including influential officials in the administration and prominent conservative thinkers. They are skeptical of support for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, opposed military operations against Iran and the Houthis, and support reductions in military forces and defense spending. None of these views are reflected in President Trump’s second-term policies.
His popularity on security and foreign policy issues within the party is as solid now as the day he took office. Even when critics within the Republican Party’s MAGA movement complain about the more interventionist aspects of President Trump’s actions, they very rarely ever personally attack the president.
Some analysts initially described the incoming administration as a collection of warring tribes including restrainers, moderates and neo-cons that would wrestle for control of policy. Such assessments focus on studying the party, not the president. Their conclusions could not have been more wrong. The president, not party politics, is determining policy.
Strategic documents
The National Security Strategy released during President Trump’s first term proved to be very instructive. During the 2016 campaign, there was little detail on what the president’s agenda would be. His national security team, which included an admixture of advisors, many of whom had agendas different from the president’s, did not help clarify the direction of foreign and security policy. The strategy, however, explained that “America First” did not mean “America Alone” and identified the continuities of U.S. policy, including commitment to traditional vital interests, as well as areas where the president intended to put additional emphasis.
The 2017 NSS, however, offers no insights at this time. Today’s world is a very different place. President Trump viewed the four years of the Biden administration as ushering in a reversal of America’s fortunes and power. The president entered office in 2025 as a more experienced leader than in his first presidency. In turn, world leaders have had a greater opportunity to work with and get to know the president and how to engage with him. This time around, he has a much more like-minded national security team that shares his vision and priorities.
Congressional influence over foreign and security policy is also diminished. For years, the government has been run under continuing resolutions that give little opportunity for lawmakers to shift priorities. Stalemate in the Senate prevents controversial bills from ever making it to the president’s desk for signature. Hearings in both houses often descend into partisan bickering. Even with the fresh strategic documents from the White House, there is little that Congress can do with them.
The bureaucracy
In the past, the National Security Council had been both a clearing house for policy development and, in many cases, the font of national policies. For Congress, the media and foreign governments, it was a one-stop shop for clarity on U.S. strategies. President Trump, however, relies more on his cabinet for the formulation and execution of policy. The NSC staff primarily serves a coordinating function. The top-down execution of national policies often means civil servants in government agencies have little liberty to discuss policy development until decisions are made and directions are received.
The media
Much of the domestic mainstream broadcast media coverage of President Trump and his policies is incessantly negative. This reporting has global influence and often skews interpretation and assessments of the president’s strategic intent and actions. However, conservative outlets such as Fox News, OAN, Newsmax or talk radio, which have large and growing audiences, cast a positive light on the administration’s actions.
How Trump develops strategy
In American strategy-making, interests are typically organized in three tiers: vital, which is crucial for national survival; important, which offers significant advantages; and peripheral, which provides some benefits. The amount of national power employed, and the level of risk assumed, should be consistent with the level of national interest. Efforts are articulated in ends (outcomes); ways (how elements of national power will be applied); and means (which elements of national power will be employed and to what degree).
President Trump’s application of strategy is no different. He just tends to express his actions less systematically and in more unconventional ways, in social media posts, interviews and press conferences.
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Despite his public utterances, President Trump’s approach to strategic action is not chaotic – rather, it is often deliberately disruptive and adaptive. He is a pragmatist and his manner of strategy-making is deeply influenced by his realist approach to foreign policy.
Most critically, the president is not a linear strategist proceeding methodically from one step to the next. Rather, he acknowledges that he has to consider the actions of others rather than just implementing a formulaic plan: To move forward, steps must be judged and effective, leading to beneficial outcomes.
Scenarios
Likely: Brinkmanship in strategic trade to persist
On the most competitive and strategically relevant challenges, such as trade negotiations and U.S.-China relations, expect the roller coaster of back-and-forth negotiating and brinkmanship to continue. Particularly, on China, both Washington and Beijing will continue to press for relative advantage. That is not likely to change anytime soon.
Likely: Allies and partners must step up, align with U.S. goals
On issues of strategic importance to the U.S., where the president has set a direction, expect him to continue to press on. In Europe, for instance, the president will remain focused on advocating for NATO’s rearmament, ensuring a free and independent Ukraine that can defend itself while demanding an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Washington will continue to emphasize secure borders and hemispheric defense. In the Middle East, the administration will push for the reconstruction of Gaza and the expansion of the Abraham Accords.
President Trump will also continue to pursue partnerships that serve U.S. interests. Washington will strongly support the development of economic corridors, similar to those recently established in Central Asia, the South Caucasus and Africa.
Likely: Support for domestic energy, economy and space primacy
The U.S. will maintain its policies of promoting reliable, affordable and abundant energy at the expense of green transition and net-zero goals. President Trump will persist in asserting dominance in the space race and advancing technological development, especially in artificial intelligence and quantum computing. He will continue to place a priority on U.S. economic growth and might.
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