productivity
Reports on productivity See all →
Focus Germany: Foreign trade – clouds on the horizon
German trade statistics are sagging. Most commentators attribute this phenomenon to the global business cycle. More likely, today’s figures are the outcome of earlier decisions made by German companies to move resources outside of Europe, and they are now developing their products elsewhere. If true, German foreign trade flows will be determined by the success in these firms’ choices, and the German market will no longer be a haven for European exporters.
Educational meritocracy and East Asia’s development miracle
Only a few countries made the leap from developing to advanced industrial nations in the 20th century. Among the fortunate five, four are from East Asia: Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. Their politics and economic policies have varied widely over the decades, but at least one common denominator stands ...
Chinese trade data ring a bell
The latest batch of Chinese trade figures shows an unexpected decline in exports and imports. On the surface, the data can be dismissed as a statistical blip caused by importers reacting to Sino-American trade tensions. Drill down a little deeper, however, and one begins to see bigger problems for China’s ...
2019 Global Outlook: Another year near zero
It has been a decade since global interest rates reached the zero lower bound, where monetary policymakers lose their ability to stimulate the economy using conventional policy tools. Among the largest global central banks, only the United States Federal Reserve has set its benchmark above 2 percent. Will this anomaly ...
2019 Global Outlook: The economy we left behind
2018 was not a bad year for the world economy, and 2019 should be only a little worse. Consistent with our forecasts, last year brought no disasters: no recession in the West, no major slump in China, no public finance crisis in Europe or global trade wars. Instead, there was ...
