Oil, gas, nuclear, renewables, energy prices, electricity and climate issues. Scenarios, forecasts and analysis from Geopolitical Intelligence Services (GIS) experts on energy trends.
GIS Dossier: The shale gas revolution
Early in this century, the U.S. unexpectedly moved from being a major natural gas importer to a significant exporter and changed its energy consumption to a more environment-friendly mix. It all happened due to its development of shale gas production. The world’s two other major gas markets – Europe and Asia – have experienced significant adjustments as well.
China’s careful new focus on Latin America
Just a few years ago, China was going all-in in Latin America, making huge investments and cozying up to governments that did not get along with Washington. Yet instability in Venezuela and a new government in Ecuador have exposed Beijing to greater risk. While China is still deepening ties with the region, it has slowed down and changed tack, focusing only on investments that are a crucial strategic interest.
GIS Dossier: Argentina digs itself out of a hole
Nearly 20 years after its historic default, Argentina is still trying to climb back to economic equilibrium. Years of corruption and mismanagement frittered away profits from natural resource exports, while a “gradualist” approach to reform still ended in Latin America’s largest-ever bailout from the IMF. This GIS Dossier reviews our predictions and analysis for one of South America’s largest countries, trying to regain economic stability and influence on the international scene.
The U.S. shale revolution continues to alter gas markets
The shale revolution has transformed global gas markets and turned the United States into the world’s leading producer. Now a net LNG exporter, the U.S. has challenged established exporters and changed the old pricing order. Europe, which is increasingly reliant on gas imports, is turning to American exports to reduce its dependency on Russia. In Asia, China sees massive growth potential in natural gas.
Turkmenistan comes into focus
Long neglected by all but devoted regional specialists, Turkmenistan has recently begun to matter in international politics. The reason is a sharp drop in energy prices, which has turned the gas-rich country into an economic basket case, and the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. Both developments have Russian and Chinese policymakers concerned about their vital interests in Central Asia.
The future of LNG for Europe
LNG is undergoing a production boom worldwide, mostly driven by the industry’s rapid growth in the United States. This could have profound effects on Europe, which has already become the largest buyer of American LNG. As a result, big changes are coming in the global gas market, as countries like Russia and Qatar jockey to compete.
Opinion: Venezuela’s endless endgame
Bankrupt and in an economic freefall, Venezuela has become the scene of a humanitarian drama. The opposition is finally unified and appears close to being able to push the die-hard Chavista regime out. Much of the outside world, including Latin America, Europe and the United States, is eager to help, but the devil, as always, is in the detail.
The long ‘bridge’ of carbon capture and storage technology
Reducing carbon emissions to reach environmental goals will require many different approaches, not just a transition to renewable energy sources. One important technology is carbon capture and storage, or CCS. Its potential for reducing CO2 emissions is significant, but high costs and uncertainties are slowing its development.
The global battery race: Europe’s strategic perspectives
Slow at first to pick up on the disruptive nature of battery technology, Europe is now aiming to give the industry a boost. The U.S. and Asia, especially, have a head start. The stakes are high: if Europe loses out, not only could it suffer economically, it could also lose geopolitical influence to China.
Mexico’s oil sector reforms face a challenge
Six years ago, Mexico began the process of reforming its oil and gas sector, opening it up to private investment and ending the monopoly of its state-owned oil company. The election of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has changed all that. Mexico is heading back toward resource nationalism, but stands to lose out in the ultra-competitive global oil market.