Seven elections will determine the future of Latin America
Latin America’s 2025-2026 elections may shift the region rightward, with polls showing the Sao Paulo Forum’s leftist candidates facing defeats.
In a nutshell
- Economic failures and crime allegations weaken FSP’s hold
- Bolivia’s election saw leftist MAS routed after being in power for 20 years
- Trump’s tariffs and anti-socialist stance embolden right-wing campaigns
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From now through October 2026, Latin America will have a busy political calendar, including presidential elections in seven countries: Bolivia, Chile, Honduras, Costa Rica, Peru, Colombia and Brazil. This series of elections could mark a new direction for the region, as polls indicate that left-wing candidates belonging to the Sao Paulo Forum (FSP) are likely to face defeat.
The FSP, established by former Cuban leader Fidel Castro and Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (known as Lula) in 1990 after the fall of the Berlin Wall, is a coalition that seeks to unite Latin American leftist movements. At its inception, it received little attention, partly because many believed communism had faded. Guided by Cuba and funded by the late Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez, the FSP evolved into a powerful platform for political parties. Today, these parties wield control over 11 governments across the region.
Factors driving right-wing resurgence in Latin America
Under United States President Joe Biden, socialism expanded without any resistance from Washington. Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025, regional dynamics have begun to change.
His Make America Great Again (MAGA) policies on Latin America, including measures addressing unauthorized immigration, organized crime, trade tariffs and efforts to curb China’s influence, are reconfiguring regional politics. As a result, socialism is losing ground while right-wing movements are gaining momentum. This shift stems from President Trump’s strategy of imposing high tariffs and sanctions to penalize his detractors, while offering low tariffs and exemptions to those he considers allies.
In March, during his reelection campaign, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa met with Mr. Trump to forge a strategic alliance. This move improved his prospects for the second round, which he ultimately won. His opponent, Luisa Gonzalez, a member of the FSP, lost public support as voters perceived her as an ally of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. This trend is evident in various electoral races, where candidates seek to align themselves with the U.S. to increase their chances of winning.
Several other factors contribute to the expected defeats of FSP candidates in the coming months, a key one being the shortcomings of the economic policies implemented by these governments. Furthermore, there is a rising sense of dissatisfaction among the Latin American people, many of whom have deep Christian values, toward the progressive ideology pushed by socialists.
There are also allegations regarding ties between leaders of the Sao Paulo Forum and organized crime. A notable example is Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who is accused of being the leader of the infamous Cartel of the Suns. In August, the Trump administration classified the cartel as a specially designated global terrorist organization. The U.S. government has placed a bounty of up to $50 million for Mr. Maduro’s capture.
As Latin America approaches a pivotal electoral season, right-wing parties face risks including threats of political violence, electoral fraud and judicial interference aimed at undermining opponents.
Bolivia: End of leftist dominance
The first general election on the calendar was held in Bolivia on August 17. As the initial results started to come in, it became clear that the leftist ruling party, Movement Toward Socialism (Movimiento al Socialismo, or MAS), which had been in power for much of the past 20 years, had been defeated. The surprise frontrunner was center-right senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira, who began his campaign with only 3 percent support in the opinion polls. In second place was Jorge Quiroga Ramirez, a former right-wing president who briefly governed in 2001. Mr. Paz Pereira will face Mr. Quiroga in an unprecedented runoff on October 19.
The preliminary tally from the electoral court shows Mr. Paz Pereira secured 32.2 percent of the vote, while Mr. Quiroga garnered 26.9 percent. Eduardo del Castillo of the MAS party received just 3.2 percent. Businessman Samuel Doria Medina (vice president of the Socialist International), who had led the polls for much of the campaign, ended up with 19.9 percent of the votes. Acknowledging his defeat, Mr. Doria Medina announced his support for Mr. Paz Pereira in the upcoming runoff.
Bolivia’s sovereign bonds rose during the election campaign, reflecting optimism about potential free-market reforms under a new government. On August 18, the nation’s dollar bonds surged to their highest level in over two years following the election.
Chile: Four right-wing candidates
Chile goes to the polls on November 16, with a likely runoff on December 14. If there were only one right-wing candidate, he or she would probably win in the first round, but there are four: Jose Antonio Kast, Evelyn Matthei, Franco Parisi and Johannes Kaiser. The left is fielding a single candidate, Jeannette Jara, who is affiliated with the Communist Party. Mr. Kast appears to be the favorite to win in the second round.
According to the polling firm Cadem, Mr. Kast is currently leading in first-round voting intentions with 29 percent, while Ms. Jara follows closely behind with 25 percent. Ms. Matthei is at 14 percent, Mr. Parisi at 12 percent and Mr. Kaiser at 7 percent.
Honduras: Manuel Zelaya seeks to remain in power
The third election on the calendar is scheduled for November 30 in Honduras (where candidates compete in a single-round system). According to Dato World, the three leading candidates are Tito Asfura of the National Party (right) with 37.2 percent approval, Salvador Nasralla of the Liberal Party (center-right) with 33.7 percent and Rixi Moncada of the Libre Party (Sao Paulo Forum) with 28.8 percent. Mr. Asfura has promised to strengthen ties with the U.S., reestablish relations with Taiwan and utilize the skills of returning migrants to revitalize the economy.
As Ms. Moncada faces the prospect of defeat, former deposed President Manuel Zelaya, leader of the Libre Party, has issued a warning. He has threatened that, if necessary, he may incite violence by rallying irregular groups throughout the country. There is also a high risk of fraud, which is why Republican Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar has urged U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to ensure that the presidential elections in Honduras are free and fair.
Costa Rica: Leftist candidates trailing
The fourth presidential election in the region will be held in Costa Rica on February 1, 2026, with a possible runoff on April 5. Since the current President Rodrigo Chaves is not eligible for reelection, the ruling Social Democratic Progress Party is looking to replace him with one of his ministers, including Laura Fernandez. A recent poll by OPol Consultores indicates that Ms. Fernandez is leading by a significant margin, with 24 percent of the vote. In a distant second place is right-wing candidate Fabricio Alvarado with 7.2 percent, closely followed by centrist Alvaro Ramos with 7.1 percent. Polls suggest the FSP-affiliated parties currently have limited support.
Read more on Latin America
- Organized crime and security in Latin America
- Venezuela: Maduro’s totalitarian turn
- Latin America caught between the U.S. and China
Peru: The undecided win
Peru’s election is set for April 12, 2026, with a potential runoff on June 7. The top presidential candidates in the polls are Lima’s mayor, Rafael Lopez Aliaga, leading with 14.2 percent, followed by comedian Carlos Alvarez at 10.9 percent and Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, with 7.9 percent. Left-wing candidates currently trail in the polls. However, those intending to cast blank ballots and those who chose not to participate in the polls account for 50 percent of the electorate, a trend also observed in countries such as Bolivia and Costa Rica.
Colombia: Crisis, violence and lawfare
The sixth election will be held in Colombia on May 31, 2026, with a probable second round on June 21. What characterizes this election is the surge of political violence and the decline of its institutions. Many believe that Colombian President Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla member, has prioritized the interests of drug traffickers and armed groups over the needs of the people.
Miguel Uribe Turbay, a young Colombian senator and the leading opposition candidate, tragically lost his life in August after being shot during a political rally in June. This incident evoked memories of the country’s darkest times of drug-related violence. He was a member of the Democratic Centre party. On July 28, former President Alvaro Uribe Velez was convicted in the first instance for allegedly bribing witnesses. He also belongs to the Democratic Centre party.
Before his death, Miguel Uribe was projected to win the election with 13.7 percent of the vote. He was followed by journalist Vicky Davila, also from the right, with 11.5 percent. Third was the leftist Gustavo Bolivar (10.5 percent) and fourth was centrist Sergio Fajardo (8.7 percent).
Brazil: The Trump factor
The seventh Latin American election will take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a likely runoff on October 25. If former President Jair Bolsonaro had not been disqualified due to his trial over an alleged coup plot, the race would be between him and President da Silva, who, despite his age (79 years), has announced his intention to run for a fourth term. According to the consulting firm Genial/Quaest, Lula leads in first-round voting intentions and would tie with Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio Gomes da Freitas in a potential runoff; however, this scenario would change if Mr. Bolsonaro were to run.
On July 9, President Trump threatened Brazil with a 50 percent tariff, accusing President da Silva of conducting a witch hunt against Mr. Bolsonaro. Lula has used this threat to invoke Brazilian nationalism in response to “U.S. interventionism.” Underlying this conflict are two other factors: first, the Brazilian president’s efforts to promote the creation of a new international currency to compete with the U.S. dollar through BRICS; and second, the growing political and trade relationship between Brazil and China.
It seems unlikely that Lula will back down from his persecution of Mr. Bolsonaro. However, this stance is not only deepening divisions within Brazil but also raising concerns that the country is moving toward an authoritarian system where the judiciary serves the executive branch. Consequently, social protests are erupting across the country.
Scenarios
Most likely: Latin America shifts to the right
The right wing is poised to secure victories in all seven upcoming elections, including the second rounds. In four countries – Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica and Peru – the left wing concedes defeat. In Honduras, Colombia and Brazil, socialists attempt to disrupt the electoral process through violence and lawfare, employing tactics such as physical intimidation and manipulative legal challenges. Despite these efforts, they fail to block right-wing wins or secure power for themselves.
Latin American governments and the Trump administration collaborate on joint efforts against organized crime.
Less likely: Political polarization in Latin America
Right-wing parties secure victories in Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica and Peru. Meanwhile, left-wing governments maintain power in Honduras, Colombia and Brazil, often resorting to tactics involving the dismantling or persecution of the opposition. This division across the continent creates two opposing camps, which could give organized crime groups greater political support. Lula could emerge as a key figure in opposing President Trump’s policies in the region.
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