Vietnam’s ‘bamboo diplomacy’ faces shifting global currents
Intensifying geopolitical tensions are making it harder for Vietnam to maintain its “firm but flexible” approach to foreign policy.
In a nutshell
- Vietnam seeks to balance ties with a diverse group of powers
- Domestic pressures risk slowing the country’s growth trajectory
- Hanoi is likely to seek wider foreign engagement despite global tensions
In recent years, Vietnam’s leaders have extolled the success of so-called “bamboo diplomacy,” under which the country’s approach to fortifying ties with major powers and growing foreign investment amid rising geopolitical competition is said to resemble bamboo that bends in the wind without breaking. Vietnam’s inroads are not surprising, having been built on one of the world’s highest economic growth rates and a record of active diplomatic engagement recognized in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. But the broader question remains how Vietnam’s foreign policy is likely to evolve in the coming years amid shifting domestic, regional and global dynamics.
More active diplomacy
Hanoi has lately stepped up its international engagement amid the post-pandemic recovery, the climate crisis, geopolitical conflicts and surging protectionism. The government has continued to develop its traditional (though complicated) ties with China and Russia as well as pursuing relations with a more diverse mix of powers, including Australia, India, Japan, South Korea and the United States.
Vietnam has also begun forging more sectoral partnerships in areas like the energy transition and semiconductors, which officials view as critical to its goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045, the same year the country plans to celebrate a century since independence. These moves advance a foreign policy vision that has been in place since the reforms of the “Doi Moi” era of the late 1980s, which were grounded on the premise of integrating a united Vietnam with the rest of Asia and the world after decades of conflict.
The country’s paramount leader and ruling communist party chief, Nguyen Phu Trong, has hailed the success of its foreign policy engagement under bamboo diplomacy, citing upgrades in a hierarchy of diplomatic relationships and joining the world’s top 20 countries in attracting foreign investment. Using vivid bamboo imagery, Mr. Trong has urged that Vietnam stick to strong foundations and principles (represented by firm roots and a sturdy trunk) while nimbly adjusting to changes in the international environment (represented by flexible branches).
Risks at home and abroad
Despite the successes of Vietnam’s foreign policy, the country’s leaders also know it faces challenges. Geopolitically, exacerbated flashpoints like the Russia-Ukraine war expose the tightrope Hanoi must walk between traditional allies like Russia and relatively newer partners such as the United States. Closer to home, China’s growing influence in Southeast Asia is bumping up against Vietnam’s own interests, as demonstrated in the South China Sea or with some of Cambodia’s Beijing-backed initiatives.
Economically, as impressive as the growth story has been, Vietnam’s escaping the middle-income trap and climbing the ladder in global value chains requires overcoming obstacles in areas like labor force productivity and the competitiveness of state-owned sectors. Additionally, internal dynamics including an anti-corruption campaign and shifting leadership have complicated efforts to attract foreign investors. These are reminders that even as Vietnam remains a one-party system ruled by the Vietnamese Communist Party, there are still domestic political forces at play, which evolve amid party congresses (held every five years) where major leadership transitions and policy trajectories are finalized. Recent changes to the offices of president and National Assembly chairman – two of the country’s top four political positions, known as the “four pillars” – reinforce this reality.
Scenarios
Most likely: Expanding engagement
Looking ahead, three key scenarios are possible. The first and most likely is one of expanding engagement. Under this scenario, Vietnam would continue managing a challenging international environment by further developing its external relationships and integrating more with the region and the world. This would include not just ties with major Indo-Pacific powers like Australia or the U.S., but also countries in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, in areas like free trade agreements, defense cooperation and diplomatic engagements more generally.
This would attract more foreign investor interest, enhance Vietnam’s growth and support its aspiration of becoming a high-income country. Vietnam would also actively use its membership in regional and global institutions to advance wide-ranging diplomatic priorities, including around war legacy issues, maritime affairs as well as peacekeeping and development in the Mekong subregion. In the coming years, this could include the planned holding of the annually rotating chairmanship role of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2029 and its proposed hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in 2027.
Less likely: Narrowing engagement
A second, less likely scenario would see Vietnam narrow its foreign policy approach as it battles a possible two-front war, between exacerbating geopolitical uncertainty abroad and intensifying domestic factional struggles over leadership and reform. Vietnam would still retain its focus on critical partnerships with immediate neighbors and major powers. However, as the ruling regime focuses more on preserving its own future, foreign policy would more transactionally prioritize short-term regime objectives over longer-term goals.
This would make it more difficult to undertake the bolder, domestic structural reforms necessary to power Vietnam’s growth. Hanoi would also be more consumed by the fallout of shifting dynamics in its own neighborhood, as China uses its growing economic influence to extract strategic concessions while smaller countries like Cambodia and Laos play off against each other to dilute Vietnam’s influence. Efforts at regime preservation at home may also increase rights concerns from partners and complicate Hanoi’s ties with Western powers like the European Union and the U.S. This would all reduce Vietnam’s bandwidth for more ambitious foreign policy objectives and make it more difficult to realize longer-term economic objectives.
Least likely: Turning inward
The third, least likely scenario would see the country turning inward in its foreign policy approach, probably due to an unforeseen shock. One geo-economic version of this scenario is a major decline in growth that exacerbates instability and risks jeopardizing the very existence of the ruling Vietnamese Communist Party. Though Vietnam remains among the region’s most impressive growth stories, its top officials have been warning about potential problems if critical breakthroughs are not achieved, and they understand the limits of linear extrapolation next door given China’s own economic difficulties.
On the geopolitical side, an even more serious scenario is protracted conflict with neighboring China, which occupied Vietnam for around a millennium and is the last country that was at war with Hanoi, back in 1979. Periodic tensions in the past decade – like China’s placing a giant oil rig in Vietnam’s waters in 2014 or violent protests against a law on Chinese special economic zones in 2018 – have offered a reminder of what a deterioration of ties could look like. More prolonged conflict could have much more severe and lasting implications for Vietnam’s foreign policy.
Even amid the bullish longer-term economic forecasting of official development plans, Vietnam’s leaders remain attentive to the possibility that the regional and international context could get even more difficult in the coming years. “Our region’s peace, stability and prosperity cannot be taken for granted … this region has become a theater for strategic competition,” Vietnam’s foreign minister soberly noted in a speech delivered in Washington, D.C., as Hanoi sought to advance its upgraded relationship with the U.S. A balance between seizing opportunities today while remaining cautious about tomorrow will be critical for Vietnam’s bamboo diplomacy to survive the changing geopolitical and economic winds likely ahead.
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