Reports

Developing countries are facing some favorable global conditions, with cheap financing, rising commodity prices, and foreign investors looking for opportunity. But three roadblocks will prevent improved growth in Africa and other developing economies: government involvement in the market, an outsize bureaucracy, and an undereducated labor force. The solutions now being pursued, from a new African trade bloc to Chinese investment, ...

Predictions of systemic transformation in Russia have invariably proved wrong. Sooner or later, however, fundamental changes in the current political regime must occur. Recent events suggest that they may start with a crucial yet often unappreciated element of the power structure.

For decades, India’s posture on the contested state of Jammu and Kashmir has been relatively stable, allowing autonomy in the region and seeking an agreement with Islamabad. Relations with Sunni Kashmiris have increasingly frayed, however, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has begun to shift its policy radically. India has ended ...

French President Emmanuel Macron wants to put EU expansion on hold while the bloc reforms itself and the European Commission has downplayed any potential for Western Balkans countries to join the bloc soon. Meanwhile, the region languishes in limbo – the continuous delays make tackling corruption less urgent for their ...

Recent elections in the Indo-Pacific confirmed regional trends in balancing China and other regional centers of power, including most prominently, the U.S. Electoral outcomes in Australia, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand indicate all will seek to maintain positive relations with Beijing with minimum impact on their ties to others.

The world is rightly concerned about China’s violation of Hong Kong’s autonomy – but such moves are not limited to authoritarian regimes. India, the world’s largest democracy, has recently abolished autonomy for the region of Jammu and Kashmir. The situation there deserves even more attention since the region is at ...

The 2008 U.S. housing crash and the European debt crisis led many politicians to question the importance of independent central banks. However, this approach is not without consequences. There are now several patterns of influence on central banks, ranging from direct political meddling to more subtle institutional pressure. Left unchecked, ...

Detaching and protecting a part of the territory of a weaker state has become a surrogate for traditional armed conflict, played with open cards. As amply demonstrated in the cases of Ukraine, Cyprus, Serbia, Georgia or Moldova, pseudo-state entities emerging in such detachments have considerable staying power, even though they ...

Low, near-zero and negative interest rates around the world are depriving savers of potential earnings. Just a couple of years ago, it seemed as if a normalization of interest rates was on the horizon. Now, however, economic and political realities portend a “low-for-long” scenario. In fact, central bankers – in ...

Long before Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika was forced to step down in April 2019, it was clear that the crony oligarchy he fronted for – known to ordinary Algerians as “the system” – could not last. If the wheelchair-bound leader looked moribund after a series of strokes, so did the country's ...

President Trump has made it clear he wants to avoid military intervention but has shown a willingness to use force when necessary. Even then, he prefers non-escalatory measures. Moreover, America’s most significant competitors also want to avoid military confrontation. But others could find benefit in drawing the U.S. into a ...

Latin America’s diverse economies are facing a series of common problems in 2019. After a years-long commodities boom, countries that failed to prepare for the current downturn in prices now deal with a loss of revenues and foreign investment. Corruption and quality of life issues have presented other challenges, and ...

Iran and Saudi Arabia have taken advantage of a conflict fueled by regional and religious rivalries to fight a proxy war in Yemen. United Nations attempts to broker a cease-fire after years of bloodshed have failed, and everyday Yemenis are suffering tremendously. Yet both sides have powerful motives to keep ...

Namibia has been hailed as a success story of democratic transition in Africa, enjoying relative stability and economic growth for years. But after general elections this November, the country may face a turning point. Growth has stagnated, and political polarization has weakened the ruling SWAPO party. Even if he holds ...

For two decades, oil and gas have been the focus of Russia’s economy. While fossil fuels will retain a key role for the foreseeable future, agriculture is booming and quickly gaining prominence. The Kremlin is touting grain exports as a path for the country to regain superpower status. A close ...

With his focus on the trade dispute with China and several other fronts opened, U.S. President Donald Trump has been lenient in his criticism of Japan’s mercantilism. If he wins a second term in office, however, he may change tack and slap tariffs on, for example, Japanese cars – a ...

Two legal challenges to the EU central bank’s most controversial policies have been working their way through Germany’s Federal Court of Justice, the country’s supreme court equivalent. In one of the cases, the justices in Karlsruhe already ruled that the authority of the EU Banking Union ought to be limited. ...

Six years after President Mikheil Saakashvili lost power to his archrival, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia has kept its pro-Western course in foreign and economic policy. Yet Russia continues to block the South Caucasus nation’s EU and NATO aspirations, and Georgian voters are growing frustrated. Now, a millennials-based protest movement could ...

Nicaragua is a cautionary tale for those who see history trending toward democratic governance. President Daniel Ortega has subverted the country’s institutions to create a personalist, authoritarian regime. Now, after the cutoff of oil-based aid from Venezuela, he is relying on guile and bloodshed to stay in power.

China has recently hinted that it could use its stranglehold on the production and processing of rare earth elements to strike at the U.S. economy. The Trump administration has put forth several new initiatives for ending the U.S. reliance on rare earth imports from China and building a domestic supply ...

Mozambique seemed to have it all. Its economy took off after a long and bloody civil war ended in 1992, accelerating further after discoveries of vast natural gas and oil reserves in 2010-2012 prompted the government to liberalize the energy sector. Yet the country’s rags-to-riches scenario has yet to materialize, ...

The 2018 withdrawal of the United States from the nuclear deal with Iran set the two countries on a collision course, and the rift has only been growing. Iran has employed covert proxy attacks, threats to close oil routes, and most recently, renewed uranium enrichment above acceptable levels. A full-on ...

For the global economy, the road ahead is unusually clear – it is headed for a gentle slowdown. But that is no reason for complacency. The next wave of trouble is already visible in the developing countries, which are highly vulnerable to rising interest rates. The EU could do much ...

The opposition victory in Istanbul’s mayoral election was seen widely as a defeat for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose illiberal, centralized system is much criticized in the West. Yet Mr. Erdogan’s detractors underestimate the challenge of adapting to Turkey’s changing geopolitical circumstances, where the Kemalist principles of secularism and ...