Search Results for: Argentina
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Riley Walters: Why U.S.-China ‘soybean diplomacy’ is overhyped
Despite resurgent trade in the vital commodity, soybean sales between Washington and Beijing have more to do with markets than geopolitics.
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Prince Michael of Liechtenstein: Milei’s choice for Argentina: From misery to prosperity
Argentina lost its once-impressive wealth due to decades of socialist-style government mismanagement. Its new president, a radical economist, could turn things around.
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Güven Sak: Post-election Turkey returns to economic orthodoxy
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is eyeing economic revival by turning the country back toward conventional policies and partnership with the West.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: President Macri’s reelection will hinge on economic rebound
Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri is in a tight spot before the elections. His government presides over cuts to public spending to secure a lifeline deal with the IMF. Mr. Macri’s hopes for inducing growth by restoring Argentina to the good graces of the financial markets did not materialize. But not all is lost for the pro-market reformer.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Argentina: Again on the brink of default
Under President Macri, Argentina has fallen into the economic crisis once again. Last month, Argentines elected a new president, Alberto Fernandez, with former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner as his running mate. To end the downward spiral, Fernandez will have to deftly navigate a political scene and economic challenges.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Argentina: Macri yet to score on economic reform
The government of Argentina can chalk up its first modest successes in improving a badly distorted economy. But the peso’s recent bad run against the dollar has signaled there are limitations to President Macri’s play it by ear, gradualist approach to reforms.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: President Fernandez tries to take control
Just eight months into his tenure, Argentina’s new president Alberto Fernandez has been thrown a trio of challenges. In the coming months, he must deal with the public health crisis, revive a deeply damaged economy, and consolidate power in his own fractured coalition.
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Inés de Marcos: Argentina’s shaky plans to tame high inflation
Successive politicians have exacerbated Argentina’s chronic economic woes. But a new ‘super minister,’ backed by fresh International Monetary Fund loans, pledges sound policies at last.
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John Polga-Hecimovich: What does the rise of Javier Milei mean for Argentina?
The upstart right-wing populist is the presidential frontrunner. He appeals to young, alienated voters weary of the Latin American nation’s chronic economic woes.
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Beat Eberle: Kosovo: Scenarios for an unfinished secession
The Albanian majority struggles to administer the entire territory of Kosovo. The northern province inhabited largely by Kosovo Serbs is a ticking time bomb.
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Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu: China, Latin America and the new space race
China has been ramping up cooperation with Latin America and the Caribbean as part of its strategic goal to gain space supremacy.
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Prince Michael of Liechtenstein: A global future with lessons from the past
The world is undeniably in crisis, politically and economically. An overhaul in leadership and farsightedness will be needed to achieve significant improvement.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Prospects for Latin American economies in 2019
Latin America’s economies are facing a series of problems in 2019. Those, that failed to prepare for the current downturn in prices deal with a loss of revenues and foreign investment. Corruption and quality of life issues have presented other challenges, and the benefits of a recent trade deal with the EU are neither immediate nor assured.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Stable Uruguay has developed-nation aspirations
The citizens of middle-income Uruguay want living standards typical of more developed countries, and have elected Luis Lacalle Pou as their new president to achieve that goal. Radical politicians on both the right and the left could hamstring his government.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: China’s careful new focus on Latin America
Just a few years ago, China was going all-in in Latin America, making huge investments in the region. Yet instability in Venezuela and a new government in Ecuador have exposed Beijing to greater risk. While China is still deepening ties, it has slowed down and changed tack, focusing only on investments that are a crucial strategic interest.
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Henrique Schneider: Climate barriers to global trade
Restricting trade for the sake of fighting climate change risks having the opposite effect.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Paraguay: Awakening from a long slumber
Known in Latin America as a backwater haven for criminal enterprises and eccentric dictators, Paraguay began to turn around over the past decade. The country’s elite is taking steps to strengthen state institutions and improve the rule of law.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Corruption in Latin America
The Odebrecht scandal, which started off as the Petrobras scandal in Brazil, has sent ripple effects throughout Latin America. It has brought down some regimes and even landed powerful leaders in jail. Perhaps the most important result is voters’ distrust of the traditional political forces.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Paraguay: Still ahead
After a difficult decade of authoritarian leadership and high crime levels, Paraguay appears to be on the path to stability – thanks to President Abdo Benitez’s rapid reaction to the pandemic. If the Chinese economy recovers, Paraguay could find itself in an enviable position.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: China’s profile is rising in Latin America
As China has been becoming an increasingly important player in the economy of Latin America, Beijing kept a low profile. Now, it can no longer avoid the spotlight. In Chile, Venezuela, Ecuador, Brazil, and Cuba, its position leads to challenges. The question is how assertive it become in imposing its will on the countries and how they react.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Bolivia’s leftist president is feeling the heat
As President Morales gears up to run for an unconstitutional fourth term, Bolivian politics enter a pivotal year. The last member of Latin America’s “pink wave” of leftist governments that rose to power on the commodities boom of the early 2000s must now deal with slumping hydrocarbon revenues and disillusioned public.
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Inés de Marcos: Political change in uncertain times
In Latin America, a new electoral super cycle could dramatically change the continent’s political landscape and put authoritarianism back on the map. Several trends are emerging, most notably a departure from established parties.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Uruguay’s uncommon strengths and dilemmas
Uruguay scores perfect tens on civil liberties and the electoral process in the World Bank’s rule of law index – matching Norway and New Zealand. The country’s internal stability is buttressed by an ambitious social welfare system.
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Teresa Nogueira Pinto: Building a bigger BRICS
The expansion of BRICS to 11 nations will strengthen the shift to a multipolar order and challenge Western dominance.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Panama, China and the Canal
For Panama, the partnership with China is an attempt to revive its economy. For Beijing, it is a chance to gain influence over the crucial Panama Canal. The question is how Panama’s new government will balance its appetite for Chinese investment with its need to maintain close ties with the United States.
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Helmuth Boeck: Why nuclear power is safer than ever
Despite public concerns, data clearly shows that nuclear power is a much safer energy source than fossil fuels. Recent innovations could soon reduce the risks even further.
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John Polga-Hecimovich: The Russian invasion and Latin America
Following economic downturns caused by Covid-19, the war in Ukraine is threatening to push the region into recession, challenging the skills and wisdom of politicians.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: The geopolitics of corruption in Latin America
The rise of the middle class and the boom in information technology have made corruption less acceptable than it once was in Latin America. Nevertheless, graft remains a problem across the continent. Constitutional reforms could improve the situation, but Latin American countries are more likely to rely on new legislation.
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Tatiana L. Palermo: Examining Latin America’s ‘puzzle’ of low growth
Why does Latin America’s economic growth remain so sluggish? Economists have addressed the question with reams of analysis, but the answer is simple: low productivity. That, in turn, has been caused by government involvement that has stifled competition and innovation.
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Michael Leigh: Is multi-alignment a path to chaos or order?
A truly multipolar world would dilute the importance of China and the United States, but the two superpower rivals are not going to cede influence easily.
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Michael Leigh: Brexit and trade
Brexit talks were supposed to be concluded at the EU summit on October 17. But the deadline passed with no breakthrough. With the clock to a “hard Brexit” ticking down, this could be the salutary shock needed to reach a compromise — or point to a future in which encourages a drift toward protectionism.
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Emmanuel Martin: The economics and geopolitics of global fisheries
Overfishing is a global environmental and economic problem that resists administrative solutions. Giving control to local stakeholders would help.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Democracy put to the test in Bolivia
In 2019, long-time President of Bolivia Evo Morales had to resign in the aftermath of violent protests. The right-wing interim government that succeeded him must now stabilize the country. Meanwhile, the former president is striving to rally his supporters.
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Henrique Schneider: Global Outlook 2018: Dangerous waters ahead for the world economy
All around, the wind seems to have filled the sails of the world economy. From consumer spending to investment to stock market indices, the sailing seems smooth. But some dangerous currents, including debt-fueled liquidity and low productivity, are converging below the surface.
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Zvi Mazel: The EU dithers in the face of Iranian terror
Europe’s policy of appeasement toward Hezbollah included looking the other way and even hiding evidence from the public on its acts of terror. Most governments in Europe stick to the view that Hezbollah is a legitimate political force in Lebanon and ignore pleas from Israel and the U.S. for solidarity in trying to tame Tehran’s aggression.
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Armando Regil Velasco: Scenarios for Mexico under AMLO
The AMLO presidency has been a setback for Mexico, but a new generation of leaders could come to power and tap into the country’s geopolitical and economic potential.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Chile’s Pinera struggles to make headway
Chile’s President Sebastian Pinera is facing resistance to his reforms from a hostile congress. His clumsy handling of several domestic crises has not helped his government gain traction. The economy is doing well, though, fueled by copper exports.
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Tatiana L. Palermo: Mercosur divided
Instead of pushing for more free trade, some members of Mercosur are using it to protect their own industries. The rift may spell the end of the customs union.
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Enrico Colombatto: The EU’s next challenge: Emerging markets
For the global economy, the road ahead is unusually clear – it is headed for a gentle slowdown. But that is no reason for complacency. The next wave of trouble is already visible in the developing countries, which are highly vulnerable to rising interest rates. The EU could do much to prevent the economic slowdown if it cared to.
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John Polga-Hecimovich: China’s evolving economic footprint in Latin America
Beijing has displaced the United States as the top trade partner throughout most of Latin America. The two powers will likely share regional dominance for the foreseeable future.
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Prince Michael of Liechtenstein: New economic deals and what they mean for Europe
The EU has agreed on trade investment deals with the U.K. and China, while African countries launched an enormous free-trade zone. While each of these developments comes with some risks, they also offer opportunities for Europe to increase its global competitiveness.
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Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu: Peak China
China’s military buildup and drive for economic self-sufficiency are signs that Beijing sees a near-term conflict, likely over Taiwan, as advantageous.
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Prince Michael of Liechtenstein: The real message from the BRICS summit
The countries of the Global South are increasingly asserting their own values and points of view – whether through the BRICS organization or otherwise
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Peru’s precarious stability
Peru has outpaced its neighbors, achieving robust economic growth despite numerous political crises. Its informal economy has helped fuel that growth, but now poses a huge risk due to the coronavirus pandemic.
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Carole Nakhle: Saudi Arabia’s energy ambition: From oil to gas
As oil grows out of fashion, Saudi Arabia is banking on natural gas. Not only can it help the country generate electricity, it can also provide a crucial basis for a robust petrochemical industry. Riyadh wants to become a gas exporter by 2030 as well, but that goal may be a bit too ambitious.
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Ana Rosa Quintana-Lovett: What lies ahead for President Bolsonaro
President Bolsonaro came into office in the aftermath of a deep recession. His deregulatory reforms have shown commitment to a pro-market agenda, but he lacks popular support at the moment. His fate could be affected by the outcome of the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil.
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Enrico Colombatto: The politics of food supply
While the prices of grains and fertilizers are likely to remain high in the years ahead, not every region will be equally affected.
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Aparna Pande: India basks in prominence on the global stage
By hosting key international events this year, New Delhi hopes to reshape the world order in its favor.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Venezuela’s endless endgame
Bankrupt and in economic freefall, Venezuela has become the scene of a humanitarian drama. The opposition is finally unified and appears close to being able to push the die-hard Chavista regime out. Much of the outside world, including Latin America, Europe, and the United States, is eager to help, but the devil, is in the detail.
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Frank Umbach: Uncertain strategies for securing supplies of critical raw materials
Western industries face a grave challenge: the exploding demand for rare metals and elements could far outpace the projected growth in their supplies. The global market for raw materials is dominated by a handful of countries, and the usual conservation and substitution strategies in the developed world will not kick in soon enough.