Colombia’s outlook darkens

After a generations-long internal conflict and controversial peace agreement with a narco-terrorist group, Colombia can no longer fall back on its economy. Enter the pandemic, and the daunting economic and social challenges faced by President Ivan Duque become clear.

Illustration of Quintana Ana Rosa
is an expert on U.S.-Latin American relations.

Colombia: Organized crime at the heart of unrest

The recent positive economic figures from Colombia belie the country’s continuing struggle with organized crime and violence. With the growth of the middle class, Colombians are becoming less ideological and are calling for more centrist policies to address these issues.

Illustration of Joseph S. Tulchin
was an expert in Latin American affairs.

A new leader in Colombia

Ivan Duque, Colombia’s newly elected president, takes office with a clear mandate from his supporters. He will likely try to slow the controversial peace accord reached with FARC guerrillas and address widespread public concerns.

Illustration of Joseph S. Tulchin
was an expert in Latin American affairs.

Colombia’s president juggles Venezuela, Trump and a shaky coalition

President Ivan Duque has a thankless job to meet the challenges of Colombia. The attempt to end the 50 year-long civil war has proven hard to implement, as millions of people were displaced and disenfranchised in that war. And a rise in coca cultivation displeases the U.S. Signals from the country’s economy, however, remain optimistic.

Illustration of Joseph S. Tulchin
was an expert in Latin American affairs.

Venezuela’s endless endgame

Bankrupt and in economic freefall, Venezuela has become the scene of a humanitarian drama. The opposition is finally unified and appears close to being able to push the die-hard Chavista regime out. Much of the outside world, including Latin America, Europe, and the United States, is eager to help, but the devil, is in the detail.

Illustration of Joseph S. Tulchin
was an expert in Latin American affairs.

Venezuela nears the breaking point

What will happen to Venezuela after the government tries to steal an unconstitutional presidential election on May 20? Everything depends on the cohesion of the splintered opposition and the determination of the international community.

Illustration of Joseph S. Tulchin
was an expert in Latin American affairs.

Prospects for Latin American economies in 2019

Latin America’s economies are facing a series of problems in 2019. Those, that failed to prepare for the current downturn in prices deal with a loss of revenues and foreign investment. Corruption and quality of life issues have presented other challenges, and the benefits of a recent trade deal with the EU are neither immediate nor assured.

Illustration of Joseph S. Tulchin
was an expert in Latin American affairs.

The ‘military option’ in Venezuela is an illusion

China is considering helping the Venezuelan regime meet its most pressing domestic needs and start rebuilding the oil industry. The USA, meanwhile, is hinting that it could use force to remove the brutal regime. Collective pressure on Caracas from the Latin American community, remains the only realistic way of resolving the crisis.

Illustration of Joseph S. Tulchin
was an expert in Latin American affairs.

Ecuador picks up the pieces

Ecuador is a small country that embodies many of Latin America’s issues in miniature. Overdependence on commodity exports and tensions with the U.S. are just some of them. Its government must clean up after former President Correa’s failed “Citizens’ Revolution,” trying to build institutions on a legacy of personalistic governance.

Illustration of Joseph S. Tulchin
was an expert in Latin American affairs.

Corruption in Latin America

The Odebrecht scandal, which started off as the Petrobras scandal in Brazil, has sent ripple effects throughout Latin America. It has brought down some regimes and even landed powerful leaders in jail. Perhaps the most important result is voters’ distrust of the traditional political forces.

Illustration of Joseph S. Tulchin
was an expert in Latin American affairs.

Political change in uncertain times

In Latin America, a new electoral super cycle could dramatically change the continent’s political landscape and put authoritarianism back on the map. Several trends are emerging, most notably a departure from established parties.

Illustration De Marcos Ines
is an expert in education and social policy.

Russia’s uneven economic development

Russia's regions vary widely in terms of their economic and social structures. There are five broad clusters of development, from the rich big cities to the poor rural areas. One thing unites them, however: the central authorities’ increasing control over their affairs.

Illustration of Evgeny Gontmakher
is the academic director of the expert group European Dialogue.

Peru’s president bets on fighting corruption

Peruvians will vote in a December referendum that could introduce anti-corruption rules giving President Martin Vizcarra a more powerful hand as he faces a hostile congress. If the referendum fails, however, the country’s new leader would be weakened, prolonging political dysfunction and holding the economy of Peru back.

Illustration of Joseph S. Tulchin
was an expert in Latin American affairs.

Pieces still not in place for Maduro’s fall

Venezuela’s crisis might end only when there is a clear exit for President Nicolas Maduro and his cohorts. So far, neither of those have materialized, meaning Venezuela’s crisis will likely not end anytime soon. When it does, it will be with the help of another country in the region, potentially Cuba or Mexico

Illustration of Joseph S. Tulchin
was an expert in Latin American affairs.

Panama, China and the Canal

For Panama, the partnership with China is an attempt to revive its economy. For Beijing, it is a chance to gain influence over the crucial Panama Canal. The question is how Panama’s new government will balance its appetite for Chinese investment with its need to maintain close ties with the United States.

Illustration of Joseph S. Tulchin
was an expert in Latin American affairs.

Scenarios for Brazil’s agricultural boom

Thanks to its unique natural resources and specialized industry, Brazil is set to reap the benefits of an agricultural boom. However, the country needs to tackle the challenges of trade liberalization, dependence on China and insufficiently diversified export products.

Illustration of Tatiana L. Palermo
is an international trade, public policies and regulatory advocacy expert.