Search Results for: Colombia
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John Polga-Hecimovich: Ecuador: Organized crime threatens the state
A rise in drug trafficking is destabilizing state institutions and the economy. The government is addressing the challenge with “iron fist” measures.
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Ana Rosa Quintana-Lovett: Colombia’s outlook darkens
After a generations-long internal conflict and controversial peace agreement with a narco-terrorist group, Colombia can no longer fall back on its economy. Enter the pandemic, and the daunting economic and social challenges faced by President Ivan Duque become clear.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Colombia: Organized crime at the heart of unrest
The recent positive economic figures from Colombia belie the country’s continuing struggle with organized crime and violence. With the growth of the middle class, Colombians are becoming less ideological and are calling for more centrist policies to address these issues.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Colombia’s president juggles Venezuela, Trump and a shaky coalition
President Ivan Duque has a thankless job to meet the challenges of Colombia. The attempt to end the 50 year-long civil war has proven hard to implement, as millions of people were displaced and disenfranchised in that war. And a rise in coca cultivation displeases the U.S. Signals from the country’s economy, however, remain optimistic.
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John Polga-Hecimovich: Colombia seeks radical change by electing Gustavo Petro as president
Mr. Petro’s victory extends the Latin American trend of rejecting incumbent parties. The president wants to raise taxes, boost social spending and curb fossil fuels.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: A new leader in Colombia
Ivan Duque, Colombia’s newly elected president, takes office with a clear mandate from his supporters. He will likely try to slow the controversial peace accord reached with FARC guerrillas and address widespread public concerns.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Peace process under strain as Colombia gears up for election
Colombia’s peace agreement has not led to the immediate prosperity many in the country were hoping for. Violence is still common, the economy is lagging, and refugees from neighboring Venezuela are flooding into the country.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Venezuela nears the breaking point
What will happen to Venezuela after the government tries to steal an unconstitutional presidential election on May 20? Everything depends on the cohesion of the splintered opposition and the determination of the international community.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: The ‘military option’ in Venezuela is an illusion
China is considering helping the Venezuelan regime meet its most pressing domestic needs and start rebuilding the oil industry. The USA, meanwhile, is hinting that it could use force to remove the brutal regime. Collective pressure on Caracas from the Latin American community, remains the only realistic way of resolving the crisis.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Ecuador picks up the pieces
Ecuador is a small country that embodies many of Latin America’s issues in miniature. Overdependence on commodity exports and tensions with the U.S. are just some of them. Its government must clean up after former President Correa’s failed “Citizens’ Revolution,” trying to build institutions on a legacy of personalistic governance.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Prospects for Latin American economies in 2019
Latin America’s economies are facing a series of problems in 2019. Those, that failed to prepare for the current downturn in prices deal with a loss of revenues and foreign investment. Corruption and quality of life issues have presented other challenges, and the benefits of a recent trade deal with the EU are neither immediate nor assured.
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James Jay Carafano: U.S.-Latin American interests in freefall
If Republicans win the 2024 elections, expect Latin American policy to be focused on border security.
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Inés de Marcos: Political change in uncertain times
In Latin America, a new electoral super cycle could dramatically change the continent’s political landscape and put authoritarianism back on the map. Several trends are emerging, most notably a departure from established parties.
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Evgeny Gontmakher: Russia’s uneven economic development
Russia’s regions vary widely in terms of their economic and social structures. There are five broad clusters of development, from the rich big cities to the poor rural areas. One thing unites them, however: the central authorities’ increasing control over their affairs.
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John Polga-Hecimovich: The Russian invasion and Latin America
Following economic downturns caused by Covid-19, the war in Ukraine is threatening to push the region into recession, challenging the skills and wisdom of politicians.
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John Polga-Hecimovich: Nicolas Maduro strengthens his hold over Venezuela
After surviving attempts to oust him over an allegedly rigged 2018 presidential election, the authoritarian leader is turning global political and economic events to his favor.
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John Polga-Hecimovich: China’s evolving economic footprint in Latin America
Beijing has displaced the United States as the top trade partner throughout most of Latin America. The two powers will likely share regional dominance for the foreseeable future.
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Prince Michael of Liechtenstein: The worrying faults of the UN migration compact
Countries are due to sign a United Nations (UN) compact for migration next week. However, its global, one-size-fits-all approach is dangerous. It risks many unintended consequences, including mass migration for welfare benefits.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Peru’s president bets on fighting corruption
Peruvians will vote in a December referendum that could introduce anti-corruption rules giving President Martin Vizcarra a more powerful hand as he faces a hostile congress. If the referendum fails, however, the country’s new leader would be weakened, prolonging political dysfunction and holding the economy of Peru back.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Venezuela’s endless endgame
Bankrupt and in economic freefall, Venezuela has become the scene of a humanitarian drama. The opposition is finally unified and appears close to being able to push the die-hard Chavista regime out. Much of the outside world, including Latin America, Europe, and the United States, is eager to help, but the devil, is in the detail.
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Ana Rosa Quintana-Lovett: Latin America’s difficult outlook
Economic downturns, political mismanagement and natural disasters have raised poverty rates and inequality in Latin America, creating a dire outlook for 2021. Populist politicians could benefit from the growing discontent.
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Teresa Nogueira Pinto: Guinea-Bissau: Little hope for a peaceful transition
After decades of institutional fragility, Guinea-Bissau appears to be facing another political thunderstorm. Presidential candidate Embalo has seized the reins of the country, but neither the supreme court nor the National Assembly recognize his victory.
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Emmanuel Martin: The worrisome mechanics of fiscal illusion
Around the world, governments are finding ways to hide how much they are taxing their citizens. Though the practice of fiscal illusion creates a huge drag on economies, current political trends favor increased government spending.
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Walter Lohman: Between two trade agreements, Asia-Pacific seeks balance
The Asia-Pacific region is trying to balance its interests with two trade agreements. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership replaces the defunct TPP agreement. Meanwhile, in Asia, the ASEAN members are negotiating the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership with six regional economies.
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Armando Regil Velasco: Scenarios for Mexico under AMLO
The AMLO presidency has been a setback for Mexico, but a new generation of leaders could come to power and tap into the country’s geopolitical and economic potential.
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Tatiana L. Palermo: Scenarios for Brazil’s agricultural boom
Thanks to its unique natural resources and specialized industry, Brazil is set to reap the benefits of an agricultural boom. However, the country needs to tackle the challenges of trade liberalization, dependence on China and insufficiently diversified export products.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Peru’s precarious stability
Peru has outpaced its neighbors, achieving robust economic growth despite numerous political crises. Its informal economy has helped fuel that growth, but now poses a huge risk due to the coronavirus pandemic.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: The geopolitics of corruption in Latin America
The rise of the middle class and the boom in information technology have made corruption less acceptable than it once was in Latin America. Nevertheless, graft remains a problem across the continent. Constitutional reforms could improve the situation, but Latin American countries are more likely to rely on new legislation.
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Tatiana L. Palermo: Mercosur divided
Instead of pushing for more free trade, some members of Mercosur are using it to protect their own industries. The rift may spell the end of the customs union.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: In Peru, the pace of progress slows
In Peru, President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski is wrangling with a fractious, majority-opposition congress. Having just narrowly escaped impeachment proceedings, he offered a presidential pardon to the controversial former President Alberto Fujimori.
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Anonymous GIS expert: Portugal is key to China’s Euro-African strategy
Like a white knight, China stepped in after Portugal’s 2011 bankruptcy with billions of dollars in investment. Now Chinese influence in Portugal is becoming a crucial cog in its strategy to exert influence and expand trade throughout Europe and Africa.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Corruption in Latin America
The Odebrecht scandal, which started off as the Petrobras scandal in Brazil, has sent ripple effects throughout Latin America. It has brought down some regimes and even landed powerful leaders in jail. Perhaps the most important result is voters’ distrust of the traditional political forces.
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John Polga-Hecimovich: Postelection Brazil: The house is still divided
Brazilian voters narrowly retired a rumpus conservative incumbent to give a third term to a bearded socialist who had presided over epic corruption. Do not expect bright results.
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John Polga-Hecimovich: Peru’s cycle of instability continues
Peru’s presidents come and leave in rapid succession amid extreme public distrust. The fast-growing country’s democracy needs a hard reset, but that will take time.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Chile’s Pinera struggles to make headway
Chile’s President Sebastian Pinera is facing resistance to his reforms from a hostile congress. His clumsy handling of several domestic crises has not helped his government gain traction. The economy is doing well, though, fueled by copper exports.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Rough waters ahead for Chile’s new government
Chile faces economic uncertainty as global trade alliances are thrown into disarray. The new government in Santiago has a weak position in the legislature. On top of the challenges of diversifying Chile’s copper-based economy, President Pinera must deal with social unrest.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Uruguay’s uncommon strengths and dilemmas
Uruguay scores perfect tens on civil liberties and the electoral process in the World Bank’s rule of law index – matching Norway and New Zealand. The country’s internal stability is buttressed by an ambitious social welfare system.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Pieces still not in place for Maduro’s fall
Venezuela’s crisis might end only when there is a clear exit for President Nicolas Maduro and his cohorts. So far, neither of those have materialized, meaning Venezuela’s crisis will likely not end anytime soon. When it does, it will be with the help of another country in the region, potentially Cuba or Mexico
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Panama, China and the Canal
For Panama, the partnership with China is an attempt to revive its economy. For Beijing, it is a chance to gain influence over the crucial Panama Canal. The question is how Panama’s new government will balance its appetite for Chinese investment with its need to maintain close ties with the United States.
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Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu: China, Latin America and the new space race
China has been ramping up cooperation with Latin America and the Caribbean as part of its strategic goal to gain space supremacy.
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Walter Lohman: The effects of U.S. trade policy in the Pacific
The Trump administration has made a big splash with its trade policy. The effects are already being seen in the Pacific region, after Washington’s decision to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, renegotiate the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement and slap tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
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James Jay Carafano: The U.S. is set to retain its strength as a global leader
Despite deepening political discord and structural problems, the U.S. can rely on its democratic institutions, its innovative and wealth-generating economy, an active civil society and an unparalleled military to play a dominating global role in the near and mid future.
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James Jay Carafano: Prospects strong for harmonious U.S.-Spanish relations
The bilateral relationship is deep and nonpartisan, with generally common interests in security and trade, bringing continuity no matter who is in power in either country.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Why they migrate
Discussions of migration from Central America into the U.S. tend to lump the principal countries of origin – El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras – into a single subregion, the Northern Triangle. Different push factors operate in each country, and without taking it into account, international aid will not reduce the migrant flow.
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Diane Katz: America’s ‘Golden State’ is losing its luster
For the first time in a century, California experienced a net population loss in 2020. Businesses are also leaving in droves. The apparent cause: political excesses of the Left Coast that destroy the state’s once enviable quality of life and business conditions.
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James Jay Carafano: The future of the U.S.-China nuclear arms race
The bilateral competition will intensify as China seeks nuclear dominance and other competitive advantages over the United States.
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James Jay Carafano: Looming confrontation over border policy in the U.S.
Democrats and Republicans will not cut a compromise on immigration and border policy. The two parties have adopted radically divergent stands on the issue.
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Anthony Maingot: Haiti’s incomplete nation-building
The long struggle for independence has left insufficient resources to lay the groundwork of a functioning Haitian state.
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Stefan Hedlund: Georgia is slowly moving into Turkey’s orbit
In the aftermath of the most recent fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkey has emerged as a key player in the Caucasus. Georgia could soon find itself seeking security guarantees from Ankara instead of Western organizations – a worrisome development for both Washington and Moscow.
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Junhua Zhang: TikTok, WeChat and China’s asymmetric digital expansion
The Chinese app TikTok has rapidly conquered the American market, but its fate is uncertain due to security concerns. To Beijing’s great displeasure, President Trump has put an upcoming ban on hold to discuss a deal that would create a joint American-Chinese venture.