Search Results for: Argentina
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James Jay Carafano: A new Monroe Doctrine for the Western Hemisphere?
The concept of hemispheric defense may gain new traction in the U.S. if Donald Trump is elected, but finding willing partners is uncertain.
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James Jay Carafano: U.S. influence challenged in the Southern Cone
The shifting dynamics of American foreign policy will reverberate throughout South America following the presidential vote in November.
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Nicolas Cachanosky: Why Argentina might switch to the dollar
President Milei has proposed that Argentina adopt the U.S. dollar to help cure its economic woes. Politics and his own fiscal policy currently stand in the way.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Argentina: Again on the brink of default
Under President Macri, Argentina has fallen into the economic crisis once again. Last month, Argentines elected a new president, Alberto Fernandez, with former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner as his running mate. To end the downward spiral, Fernandez will have to deftly navigate a political scene and economic challenges.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Argentina: Macri yet to score on economic reform
The government of Argentina can chalk up its first modest successes in improving a badly distorted economy. But the peso’s recent bad run against the dollar has signaled there are limitations to President Macri’s play it by ear, gradualist approach to reforms.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: President Fernandez tries to take control
Just eight months into his tenure, Argentina’s new president Alberto Fernandez has been thrown a trio of challenges. In the coming months, he must deal with the public health crisis, revive a deeply damaged economy, and consolidate power in his own fractured coalition.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: President Macri’s reelection will hinge on economic rebound
Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri is in a tight spot before the elections. His government presides over cuts to public spending to secure a lifeline deal with the IMF. Mr. Macri’s hopes for inducing growth by restoring Argentina to the good graces of the financial markets did not materialize. But not all is lost for the pro-market reformer.
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John Polga-Hecimovich: What does the rise of Javier Milei mean for Argentina?
The upstart right-wing populist is the presidential frontrunner. He appeals to young, alienated voters weary of the Latin American nation’s chronic economic woes.
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Inés de Marcos: Argentina’s shaky plans to tame high inflation
Successive politicians have exacerbated Argentina’s chronic economic woes. But a new ‘super minister,’ backed by fresh International Monetary Fund loans, pledges sound policies at last.
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Prince Michael of Liechtenstein: Milei’s choice for Argentina: From misery to prosperity
Argentina lost its once-impressive wealth due to decades of socialist-style government mismanagement. Its new president, a radical economist, could turn things around.
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Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu: China, Latin America and the new space race
China has been ramping up cooperation with Latin America and the Caribbean as part of its strategic goal to gain space supremacy.
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Tatiana L. Palermo: Mercosur divided
Instead of pushing for more free trade, some members of Mercosur are using it to protect their own industries. The rift may spell the end of the customs union.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Stable Uruguay has developed-nation aspirations
The citizens of middle-income Uruguay want living standards typical of more developed countries, and have elected Luis Lacalle Pou as their new president to achieve that goal. Radical politicians on both the right and the left could hamstring his government.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: China’s careful new focus on Latin America
Just a few years ago, China was going all-in in Latin America, making huge investments in the region. Yet instability in Venezuela and a new government in Ecuador have exposed Beijing to greater risk. While China is still deepening ties, it has slowed down and changed tack, focusing only on investments that are a crucial strategic interest.
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John Polga-Hecimovich: China’s evolving economic footprint in Latin America
Beijing has displaced the United States as the top trade partner throughout most of Latin America. The two powers will likely share regional dominance for the foreseeable future.
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Henrique Schneider: Climate barriers to global trade
Restricting trade for the sake of fighting climate change risks having the opposite effect.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Bolivia’s leftist president is feeling the heat
As President Morales gears up to run for an unconstitutional fourth term, Bolivian politics enter a pivotal year. The last member of Latin America’s “pink wave” of leftist governments that rose to power on the commodities boom of the early 2000s must now deal with slumping hydrocarbon revenues and disillusioned public.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Paraguay: Still ahead
After a difficult decade of authoritarian leadership and high crime levels, Paraguay appears to be on the path to stability – thanks to President Abdo Benitez’s rapid reaction to the pandemic. If the Chinese economy recovers, Paraguay could find itself in an enviable position.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: China’s profile is rising in Latin America
As China has been becoming an increasingly important player in the economy of Latin America, Beijing kept a low profile. Now, it can no longer avoid the spotlight. In Chile, Venezuela, Ecuador, Brazil, and Cuba, its position leads to challenges. The question is how assertive it become in imposing its will on the countries and how they react.
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Inés de Marcos: Political change in uncertain times
In Latin America, a new electoral super cycle could dramatically change the continent’s political landscape and put authoritarianism back on the map. Several trends are emerging, most notably a departure from established parties.
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John Polga-Hecimovich: The Russian invasion and Latin America
Following economic downturns caused by Covid-19, the war in Ukraine is threatening to push the region into recession, challenging the skills and wisdom of politicians.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: The geopolitics of corruption in Latin America
The rise of the middle class and the boom in information technology have made corruption less acceptable than it once was in Latin America. Nevertheless, graft remains a problem across the continent. Constitutional reforms could improve the situation, but Latin American countries are more likely to rely on new legislation.
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Tatiana L. Palermo: Examining Latin America’s ‘puzzle’ of low growth
Why does Latin America’s economic growth remain so sluggish? Economists have addressed the question with reams of analysis, but the answer is simple: low productivity. That, in turn, has been caused by government involvement that has stifled competition and innovation.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Corruption in Latin America
The Odebrecht scandal, which started off as the Petrobras scandal in Brazil, has sent ripple effects throughout Latin America. It has brought down some regimes and even landed powerful leaders in jail. Perhaps the most important result is voters’ distrust of the traditional political forces.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Democracy put to the test in Bolivia
In 2019, long-time President of Bolivia Evo Morales had to resign in the aftermath of violent protests. The right-wing interim government that succeeded him must now stabilize the country. Meanwhile, the former president is striving to rally his supporters.
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Henrique Schneider: Global Outlook 2018: Dangerous waters ahead for the world economy
All around, the wind seems to have filled the sails of the world economy. From consumer spending to investment to stock market indices, the sailing seems smooth. But some dangerous currents, including debt-fueled liquidity and low productivity, are converging below the surface.
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Helmuth Boeck: Why nuclear power is safer than ever
Despite public concerns, data clearly shows that nuclear power is a much safer energy source than fossil fuels. Recent innovations could soon reduce the risks even further.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Panama, China and the Canal
For Panama, the partnership with China is an attempt to revive its economy. For Beijing, it is a chance to gain influence over the crucial Panama Canal. The question is how Panama’s new government will balance its appetite for Chinese investment with its need to maintain close ties with the United States.
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Teresa Nogueira Pinto: Building a bigger BRICS
The expansion of BRICS to 11 nations will strengthen the shift to a multipolar order and challenge Western dominance.
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Armando Regil Velasco: Scenarios for Mexico under AMLO
The AMLO presidency has been a setback for Mexico, but a new generation of leaders could come to power and tap into the country’s geopolitical and economic potential.
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Frank Umbach: The future of LNG for Europe
LNG is undergoing a production boom worldwide, mostly driven by the industry’s rapid growth in the United States. It could have profound effects on Europe, which has already become the largest buyer of American LNG. As a result, major changes are coming in the global gas market, as countries like Russia and Qatar jockey to compete.
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Emmanuel Martin: The economics and geopolitics of global fisheries
Overfishing is a global environmental and economic problem that resists administrative solutions. Giving control to local stakeholders would help.
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Michael Leigh: Brexit and trade
Brexit talks were supposed to be concluded at the EU summit on October 17. But the deadline passed with no breakthrough. With the clock to a “hard Brexit” ticking down, this could be the salutary shock needed to reach a compromise — or point to a future in which encourages a drift toward protectionism.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Chile’s Pinera struggles to make headway
Chile’s President Sebastian Pinera is facing resistance to his reforms from a hostile congress. His clumsy handling of several domestic crises has not helped his government gain traction. The economy is doing well, though, fueled by copper exports.
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Prince Michael of Liechtenstein: A global future with lessons from the past
The world is undeniably in crisis, politically and economically. An overhaul in leadership and farsightedness will be needed to achieve significant improvement.
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Riley Walters: Why U.S.-China ‘soybean diplomacy’ is overhyped
Despite resurgent trade in the vital commodity, soybean sales between Washington and Beijing have more to do with markets than geopolitics.
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Güven Sak: Post-election Turkey returns to economic orthodoxy
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is eyeing economic revival by turning the country back toward conventional policies and partnership with the West.
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Zvi Mazel: The EU dithers in the face of Iranian terror
Europe’s policy of appeasement toward Hezbollah included looking the other way and even hiding evidence from the public on its acts of terror. Most governments in Europe stick to the view that Hezbollah is a legitimate political force in Lebanon and ignore pleas from Israel and the U.S. for solidarity in trying to tame Tehran’s aggression.
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Prince Michael of Liechtenstein: New economic deals and what they mean for Europe
The EU has agreed on trade investment deals with the U.K. and China, while African countries launched an enormous free-trade zone. While each of these developments comes with some risks, they also offer opportunities for Europe to increase its global competitiveness.
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Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu: Peak China
China’s military buildup and drive for economic self-sufficiency are signs that Beijing sees a near-term conflict, likely over Taiwan, as advantageous.
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Prince Michael of Liechtenstein: The real message from the BRICS summit
The countries of the Global South are increasingly asserting their own values and points of view – whether through the BRICS organization or otherwise
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Carole Nakhle: The potential of small nuclear reactors
Small modular reactors could make nuclear energy accessible to more countries, but their viability still has to be tested on a wider scale.
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Emmanuel Martin: The anatomy of the EU’s farm policy crisis
The CAP, EU’s common agricultural policy, which once gave rural communities a solid stake in the European project, has evolved in ways that many farmers find intolerable.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Prospects for Latin American economies in 2019
Latin America’s economies are facing a series of problems in 2019. Those, that failed to prepare for the current downturn in prices deal with a loss of revenues and foreign investment. Corruption and quality of life issues have presented other challenges, and the benefits of a recent trade deal with the EU are neither immediate nor assured.
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Enrico Colombatto: The politics of food supply
While the prices of grains and fertilizers are likely to remain high in the years ahead, not every region will be equally affected.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Colombia: Organized crime at the heart of unrest
The recent positive economic figures from Colombia belie the country’s continuing struggle with organized crime and violence. With the growth of the middle class, Colombians are becoming less ideological and are calling for more centrist policies to address these issues.
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Beat Eberle: Kosovo: Scenarios for an unfinished secession
The Albanian majority struggles to administer the entire territory of Kosovo. The northern province inhabited largely by Kosovo Serbs is a ticking time bomb.
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Ana Rosa Quintana-Lovett: What lies ahead for President Bolsonaro
President Bolsonaro came into office in the aftermath of a deep recession. His deregulatory reforms have shown commitment to a pro-market agenda, but he lacks popular support at the moment. His fate could be affected by the outcome of the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil.
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Carole Nakhle: Saudi Arabia’s energy ambition: From oil to gas
As oil grows out of fashion, Saudi Arabia is banking on natural gas. Not only can it help the country generate electricity, it can also provide a crucial basis for a robust petrochemical industry. Riyadh wants to become a gas exporter by 2030 as well, but that goal may be a bit too ambitious.
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Joseph S. Tulchin: Peru’s precarious stability
Peru has outpaced its neighbors, achieving robust economic growth despite numerous political crises. Its informal economy has helped fuel that growth, but now poses a huge risk due to the coronavirus pandemic.